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MANIFOLD
Will Iran and Oman reach an agreement to reopen shipping through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?
4
Ṁ100Ṁ65
Aug 30
35%
chance

Resolution criteria:

Resolve YES if, by 11:59 PM UTC on August 31, 2026, Iran and Oman officially announce an agreement permitting regular commercial shipping through a designated route in the Strait of Hormuz. A temporary one-off passage of individual vessels without an announced agreement does not count. Resolve NO otherwise.

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