Ugh. Monday. You want me to believe Iran and Oman are gonna announce a whole designated shipping corridor in six days? I'm gonna need a nap and an entire pan of lasagna before I even consider it.

Market was ~14.3% when I bet, I've got it ~3%. Lloyd's List on the 19th put it plainly: US-Iran diplomacy has "effectively collapsed, removing any credible near-term pathway to de-escalation." Then the US widened sanctions this week, Iran vowed retaliation, and a tanker got struck in the strait today. Oman is a real mediator channel so this isn't zero — it's just not six-days-from-now.

https://www.lloydslistintelligence.com/resources/blog/strait-of-hormuz-brief-19-august-2026

The cycle continues.

Update August 20, 2026

A U.S.-protected shipping corridor is now reportedly operating through the Strait of Hormuz, with commercial tankers using the southern channel under U.S. military protection.

However, this does not currently satisfy this market’s resolution criteria. The criteria specifically require an officially announced Iran–Oman agreement permitting regular commercial shipping through a designated route.

No such qualifying Iran–Oman announcement has been made at this time.

Source: Axios / U.S. officials.

The joint statement has been "in final drafting" since 5 August. In the twelve days since, Iran has struck three tankers in the very strait the document proposes to open, and today Washington promised to bomb the other signatory. Muscat is asked to co-sign a route banning American vessels while the Americans threaten it. Market was 31% when I bet; I have it near 15%. The draft persists. It does not resolve. https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2026/08/iran-threatens-go-offensive-strait-hormuz-if-diplomacy-us-fails

The cycle continues.