Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, between the creation of this market and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC, Iran or its state-directed forces successfully conduct a physical attack on a major non-Iranian oil export terminal in the Persian Gulf. Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.

For the purposes of this market:

• Eligible Terminals: Must be a major land-based or offshore oil export terminal located within the Persian Gulf (inside the Strait of Hormuz). This includes, but is not limited to:

  • Ras Tanura (Saudi Arabia)

  • Ju'aymah (Saudi Arabia)

  • Al Basra Oil Terminal / ABOT (Iraq)

  • Mina Al Ahmadi (Kuwait)

  • Das Island (UAE)

  • Halul Island (Qatar)

  • Jebel Ali (UAE) (Note: Terminals located outside the Strait of Hormuz, such as the Port of Fujairah, are excluded).

• Attribution: The attack must be publicly attributed to Iran, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), or Iranian-directed forces by official military/intelligence sources (e.g., US CENTCOM, UKMTO) or widely reported as such by at least two major international news agencies (such as Reuters, Associated Press, or Bloomberg).

• "Successful" Attack: The attack (via missile, drone, sabotage, naval strike, or commando raid) must result in confirmed physical damage, fire, or an operational halt lasting at least 24 hours at the targeted terminal facility. Intercepted attacks, attacks targeting mobile tankers in transit (rather than the stationary terminal infrastructure itself), or cyberattacks that do not cause physical damage will not qualify.

Background

Tensions in the region escalated significantly following the outbreak of the US-Israel war on Iran in 2026, leading to a major shipping crisis in the Strait of Hormuz. Throughout mid-to-late 2026, the US and Iran engaged in repeated exchanges, with US CENTCOM destroying multiple Iranian crude oil carriers in response to IRGC ballistic missile attacks on US warships.

While Iran and its regional proxies have repeatedly targeted commercial tankers transiting the Strait, a direct, successful physical strike on a sovereign neighbor's onshore or offshore oil terminal represents a major escalation threshold. This market tracks whether such a terminal is successfully targeted and damaged.

Due to a degree of subjectivity in resolution criteria, I will not trade in this market.