Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, by July 31, 2027, the Strait of Hormuz has resumed normal, unrestricted commercial operations and shipping transit volumes.

To ensure an unambiguous resolution, this market will resolve to YES if any of the following conditions are met for the month of July 2027 (or the latest available reporting month by August 15, 2027):

1. Shipping Volumes: The daily volume of crude oil and petroleum liquids transiting the Strait of Hormuz averages at least 15 million barrels per day (mb/d) over a monthly reporting period (compared to the pre-conflict average of ~20 mb/d), as reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the International Energy Agency (IEA), or major market tracking firms (such as Kpler or Vortexa).

2. Vessel Transits: Daily commercial vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz average at least 50 vessels per day over a 30-day period (compared to the pre-conflict median of ~73 transits/day), as tracked by IMF PortWatch or the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO).

3. Consensus of Re-opening: Major global shipping lines (such as Maersk, MSC, CMA CGM, and Hapag-Lloyd) have officially resumed standard, unrestricted transit through the Strait of Hormuz without active naval blockades, as reported by reputable maritime outlets (e.g., Lloyd's List) or mainstream financial news (e.g., Reuters, Bloomberg).

If none of these conditions are met, or if shipping continues to be heavily restricted, blocked, or subjected to active military enforcement/blockades by either the U.S. or Iran, this market will resolve to NO.

Background

The 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis began on February 28, 2026, following U.S. and Israeli air strikes against Iran. In retaliation, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) restricted access to the strait, prompting subsequent U.S. naval blockades and escort operations.

Prior to the conflict, the Strait of Hormuz was the world’s most critical maritime energy chokepoint, facilitating the passage of roughly 20 million barrels of oil per day (about 20% of global oil consumption) and 20% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG). Since the outbreak of hostilities, shipping traffic has plunged significantly, frequently operating at roughly 90% below pre-conflict baselines. While diplomatic negotiations and temporary ceasefires have occurred, a permanent resolution remains elusive. The U.S. Energy Information Administration's August 2026 forecast projects that most regional production may recover in early 2027, but expects ongoing shipping disruptions of around 0.6 million barrels per day to persist through the end of 2027.

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