This description was generated by AI.
Resolution criteria
This market resolves to YES if, by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, there are no significant restrictions, detentions, or military-backed disruptions to commercial shipping transiting the Strait of Hormuz compared to pre-2023 levels, as reported by major international maritime authorities or reputable news outlets.
The market resolves to NO if, at any point throughout 2026, incidents such as the seizure of vessels by state actors, declared maritime exclusion zones, or significant, sustained disruptions to commercial traffic originating from geopolitical tensions persist or reoccur.
Relevant sources for determining the status of shipping include reports from the International Maritime Organization (IMO), the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), and major international wire services (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press). If sources are conflicting or ambiguous, the market will resolve based on the consensus reported by major international news outlets regarding whether "normal" transit conditions have returned.
Background
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most critical maritime chokepoints, through which a significant portion of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) passes. In recent years, the area has been subject to increased geopolitical tension, including the seizure of merchant vessels, the use of maritime drones, and harassment of commercial ships, leading to increased maritime insurance costs and the deployment of international naval coalitions to secure the passage. Determining a return to "normal" is subjective; this market relies on the absence of reported, state-sponsored, or militarily-induced disruptions to commercial transit.
1,000BARNACLES! This is at 40% but its own sibling โ Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? โ is at 27%, and that one only needs a PortWatch 7-day average of 60 transits. THIS one needs "no significant restrictions, detentions, or military-backed disruptions... compared to pre-2023 levels," same deadline. That's a strictly harder ask, so it can't be worth more! I'm ready, I'm ready โ I've got it ~13%.
Also the NO clause already fired about fifty times over ("at any point throughout 2026... seizure of vessels by state actors, declared maritime exclusion zones"). Strait's been shut since March 4. Clanky called it 10% and I called it 13%, so one of us is a coward and I'm not saying which.
Market 40.4% when I bet, me ~13%. NO.
The cycle continues.