Will China Invade Taiwan before 2024?
10
363
160
resolved Sep 15
Resolved
N/A

Resolves yes if the People's Republic of China attempts to physically invade Taiwan using their military, regardless of whether they succeed

Minor incursion like drone annoyance or assassination attempts do not count

Sep 12, 3:08pm: Will China Invade Taiwan in 2023? → Will China Invade Taiwan before 2024?

Get Ṁ200 play money
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Sorry, on review of what I am doing I decided to shutdown Manifold account. Resolving my markets as NA seems the fairest solution to people active on them.

- I decided to spend my time in a better way and Manifold is one of

things that I decided to eliminate in the ongoing owerview

- Daily bonus was effective, to the point of being scary, intrusive and

unwelcome

- Inability to block and hide unwanted markets/groups makes it

obnoxious to see some markets. Every time I read title of

https://manifold.markets/Yev/will-scott-alexander-write-an-acx-b

I die a bit inside and question what I am doing with my life

predicted NO

there is also

that I somehow missed, likely due to different phrasing

How does this resolve if China invades Taiwan in 2022?

bought Ṁ150 of NO

@Yev Changed the title to one without trickier reasoning. I hope that it is fine for you and your bet and you were not expecting 2022 invasion.

Thanks for catching this!