Market background

Nigel Farage is currently associated with Reform UK, a right-wing political party that has seen increasing popularity in recent polls. In February 2025, Reform UK became the most popular party in Britain according to YouGov polling data. The party secured over four million votes and won five seats in the 2024 UK General Election, marking one of its strongest parliamentary performances to date.

This market exists to cover any theorised eventualities in which Farage leaves Reform UK, and joins or starts another party which then goes on to win. My previous market, Will Reform UK win the next UK election, does not track Farage himeself, rather the party. This market tracks Farage.

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if:

• A party that Nigel Farage is a member of wins the next UK general election, or is the larger party in a coalition. A “member” meaning any of: A running MP/ candidate, party management, head of the party, employed by the party, frequently referred to as belonging to that party by reputable media sources

Resolves NO if:

• anything else