Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
Will Nigel Farage complete his full term as a Reform Party MP?
37
Ṁ1kṀ8.9k
resolved Jul 8
Resolved
NO

Representing the Reform Party, Nigel Farage was elected Member of Parliament for Clacton on 4 July 2024. Will he still be a sitting Reform Party MP at the time of the next general election?

This would be resolved as NO if, by the time of the next general election:

  • For any reason Nigel Farage stands down as MP or another person is elected in a by-election

  • Nigel Farage leaves the Reform Party

  • The Reform Party changes its name, breaks up or otherwise ceases to exist.

NB. As of 4 July 2024 Nigel Farage was leader of the Reform Party and one of its controlling shareholders.

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#TraderTotal profit
1Ṁ569
2Ṁ204
3Ṁ156
4Ṁ150
5Ṁ125
Sort by:

This would be resolved as NO if, by the time of the next general election:

  • For any reason Nigel Farage stands down as MP

    This can be resolved No based on this rule. He has stood down to run for re-election.

sold Ṁ1,000 NO

What a stupid gimmick. So if he wins the by-election and stays in until the next election, does this resolve YES?

@Fion If Nigel Farage wins the by-election and is still there at the time of the next general election it will resolve YES.

@jrmygrdn The rules disagree with your comment. He has stood down.

@YourFriend I agree. To force a by election, a sitting MP has to stand down. They stop being an MP; if they are re-elected they become an MP again.

@PontiMin @YourFriend

You are correct, my apologies for being too hasty in my reply to @Fiona. Farage having stood down and having officially stopped being Clacton MO even if only for one day binds me to resolve NO.

@jrmygrdn I think this would be a reasonable resolution, but not coming after your earlier answer to me. I bought YES after that clarification because market creator clarifications supercede rules as written. This feels like a rug pull and I think NA is the least bad remaining option.

@Fion He also hasn’t actually resigned as an MP yet. He’s only announced an intention to resign. He has to be appointed to one of the two resignation offices, and although likely there are people (the lib dems most prominently), shouting that he should be blocked from stepping down. This question should still be open right now as it’s possible (very unlikely, <5% chance) that he is blocked from resigning.

@Fion Once again, my apologies. I messed up badly with that message and I’m sorry it impacted you.