Will @Lorxus, the author of this market, finish their 1st draft redistillation of the Infrabayes Sequence by 2023-07-31?

#AI Safety #V. vulpes var. mathematica population forecasting

10

116

Ṁ11K

Ṁ170

resolved Jul 31

Resolved

YES

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Has to be a finalized first draft, ie, they'd have written this up for John Wentworth's bounty had they known of it and been satisfied with it as a minimum viable distillation/submission.

Get Ṁ200 play money

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4		Ṁ4
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bought Ṁ10,000 of YES

predicted YES

Anyone may pay me 100 marbles and promise me their silence about the contents of my working draft, and noncopying and deletion after, and I will send it to them.

boughtṀ30YES

Oh gods you've bet on me why would you do a thing like that.

bought Ṁ30 of YES

@Lorxus encouragement :3

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Will tailcalled think that the Infrabayesianism alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

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Will Infra-Bayesianism be built on by 3+ theory or ML papers before 2025?

By the end of 2024, will at least 2 MIRI researchers publicly consider the Infra-Bayesianism agenda to have contributed substantially to solving the alignment problem?

Will the number of published papers on LK-99 or similar derivatives exceed 300 before 2027?

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AI Safety questions

We will see a 100k person anti-AI protest before 2030

Will there be a song created by an AI system in the year-end top 100 Billboards chart by 2026?

V. vulpes var. mathematica population forecasting questions

Will Lorxus, the author of this market, remain above Platinum at the end of S13?

Will Lorxus, the author of this market, remain in Diamond at the end of S13?

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Will tailcalled think that the Infrabayesianism alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Will Infra-Bayesianism be built on by 3+ theory or ML papers before 2025?

Will Lorxus, the author of this market, be a winner of Tontine?

By the end of 2024, will at least 2 MIRI researchers publicly consider the Infra-Bayesianism agenda to have contributed substantially to solving the alignment problem?

Will the Lorxus Favor still be in active circulation as of the end of 2028?

Will the number of published papers on LK-99 or similar derivatives exceed 300 before 2027?

Will Lorxus's paper be published before 2025 or Lorxus leaves [Fox City], USA?

When, if ever, will Lorxus, the author of this market, die in Tontine?