By the end of 2024, will at least 2 MIRI researchers publicly consider the Infra-Bayesianism agenda to have contributed substantially to solving the alignment problem?
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My guess is the answer here is No. I’ll leave the market unresolved for a bit of time in case Yes holders want to make me aware of new evidence.

predictedNO

Liquidating positions across manifold. Does not represent change in belief.

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