Will the Lorxus Favor still be in active circulation as of the end of 2028?
Basic
6
Ṁ145
2029
84%
chance

The Lorxus Favor is an experiment in delocalized trade and planning that Lorxus launched in late 2019. Favors, the small silver coins integral to the experiment, are traded interpersonally for needed favors or goods, and can be sold back to Lorxus for cash as a last-resort backup option. A more detailed writeup can be found at lorx.us/favor . Currently, 77 such coins exist, with 66 of them currently in circulation, ~25 people having ever conducted a Favor-based transaction, and ~100 transactions ever having been conducted.

The market resolves YES if it remains true until the end of 2028 that at least three different non-Lorxus people have each freely conducted at least one Favor-counterweighted trade or agreement within the last 366 days, and resolves early to NO if at any point this ceases to be true. A transaction counts once each for each party to the trade.

Information on this will be collected by self-report, as is ordinary for the Favor economy.

The most recent trade was conducted on 2023-11-22, involving the trade of two Favors for a benefit I refuse to publicize out of respect for privacy. The next most recent was conducted on 2023-5-21, not between the same two people, and also involving the trade of two Favors.

The floor-value was last set on 2023-10-31, at $82.55 . The next time the floor-value will be manually updated will be 2023-12-21.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
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