Will Donald Trump be indicted for any crimes in any jurisdiction by the end of 2022?
217
resolved Jan 11
Resolved
NO

Jun 15, 9:47pm: For clarity, this will resolve several weeks into the new year, just in case

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Aug 12, 10:21pm:

Aug 12, 10:22pm:

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NicoDelon avatar
Nico Dpredicted NO at 1.3%

This can resolve

LiteChaos avatar
LiteChaos
BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardssold Ṁ692 of YES

How did you set the Olivia group to be permanent? @LivInTheLookingGlass

LivInTheLookingGlass avatar
Oliviapredicted NO at 8%

@BTE I didn't? The groups on this seem horribly broken. Maybe creators have higher permission level to remove? Even so, why does the Olivia group show up 4 times‽

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardspredicted YES at 8%

@LivInTheLookingGlass I haven't seen that anywhere else on the site. My markets are regularly edited by others and on a couple occasions I changed someone else's market to remove it from a group I created. Never have I seen a single group label I couldn't delete, let alone four!! 🤣

jack avatar
Jackbought Ṁ30 of YES

https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/18/politics/justice-department-trump-special-counsel/index.html "DOJ announces special counsel for Trump-related Mar-a-Lago and January 6 criminal investigations"

jack avatar
Jackpredicted YES at 32%

A couple more related markets about his recent subpoena by the Jan 6 committee:

LivInTheLookingGlass avatar
Oliviapredicted YES at 33%

New pair of related markets

MattP avatar
Matt Ppredicted NO at 33%

Note for posterity and clarification: Tish James' recently filed lawsuit against Trump and his company is not an indictment. It's a civil case.

XiJinping avatar
Xi Jinpingbought Ṁ10 of YES

Even Judge Cannon’s order instructed the special master to prioritize review of the confidential documents so Dearie probably could get that part out of the way in a day max. I think he will argue he shouldn’t see the documents as a matter of judicial principle. I don’t foresee Dearie just abiding by an order so unfair to the government.

belikewater avatar
belikewaterbought Ṁ50 of YES

Trump just arrived in DC tonight in what looks like an unplanned visit. He flew in his golf clothes and golf shoes, straight off the golf course. No one knows of any event he has planned in DC. Is this a medical flight, and if so, why not either go to a local hospital or fly by helicopter to Walter Reed? Or might he be about to be indicted in DC, which would also coincidentally render moot the decision to give him a Special Master? Also, some knowledgeable people previously estimated that he would probably be indicted by mid-Sept. Might it be about to happen?

aps avatar
aps

I hereby indict Donald J. Trump for chicanery under my jurisdiction as God-Emperor of Earth.

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardspredicted YES at 35%

@aps How much mana do I have to send you to skip the indictment and go straight to the smiting?!?

LivInTheLookingGlass avatar
Oliviapredicted YES at 35%
LivInTheLookingGlass avatar
Oliviapredicted YES at 47%

Apparently they took his passports

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardspredicted YES at 47%

@LivInTheLookingGlass If there was ever evidence he is getting charged this is it.

MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randall

@LivInTheLookingGlass And returned them.

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardspredicted YES at 46%
Gigacasting avatar
Gigacasting

RETVRN (to when two synonyms were no longer synonyms 🤔)

MattP avatar
Matt Ppredicted NO at 46%

Trump's supporters (and some opponents) are fond of saying that if he is indicted, it will only make him stronger. Are they right?

https://manifold.markets/MattP/conditional-on-donald-trump-being-i

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardspredicted YES at 42%

@MattP You should embed the market instead of linking to it IMO. Great new feature.

LivInTheLookingGlass avatar
Oliviapredicted YES at 42%

@BTE eek, it is way too short on mobile

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardspredicted YES at 42%

@LivInTheLookingGlass You're right. Should just hide the chart on mobile maybe.

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