Will Donald Trump be indicted for any crimes in any jurisdiction by the end of 2022?
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resolved Jan 11
Resolved
NO

Jun 15, 9:47pm: For clarity, this will resolve several weeks into the new year, just in case

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predicted NO

This can resolve

sold Ṁ692 of YES

How did you set the Olivia group to be permanent? @LivInTheLookingGlass

predicted NO

@BTE I didn't? The groups on this seem horribly broken. Maybe creators have higher permission level to remove? Even so, why does the Olivia group show up 4 times‽

predicted YES

@LivInTheLookingGlass I haven't seen that anywhere else on the site. My markets are regularly edited by others and on a couple occasions I changed someone else's market to remove it from a group I created. Never have I seen a single group label I couldn't delete, let alone four!! 🤣

bought Ṁ30 of YES

https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/18/politics/justice-department-trump-special-counsel/index.html "DOJ announces special counsel for Trump-related Mar-a-Lago and January 6 criminal investigations"

predicted YES

A couple more related markets about his recent subpoena by the Jan 6 committee:

predicted YES

New pair of related markets

predicted NO

Note for posterity and clarification: Tish James' recently filed lawsuit against Trump and his company is not an indictment. It's a civil case.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

Even Judge Cannon’s order instructed the special master to prioritize review of the confidential documents so Dearie probably could get that part out of the way in a day max. I think he will argue he shouldn’t see the documents as a matter of judicial principle. I don’t foresee Dearie just abiding by an order so unfair to the government.

bought Ṁ50 of YES

Trump just arrived in DC tonight in what looks like an unplanned visit. He flew in his golf clothes and golf shoes, straight off the golf course. No one knows of any event he has planned in DC. Is this a medical flight, and if so, why not either go to a local hospital or fly by helicopter to Walter Reed? Or might he be about to be indicted in DC, which would also coincidentally render moot the decision to give him a Special Master? Also, some knowledgeable people previously estimated that he would probably be indicted by mid-Sept. Might it be about to happen?

I hereby indict Donald J. Trump for chicanery under my jurisdiction as God-Emperor of Earth.

predicted YES

@aps How much mana do I have to send you to skip the indictment and go straight to the smiting?!?

predicted YES
predicted YES

Apparently they took his passports

predicted YES

@LivInTheLookingGlass If there was ever evidence he is getting charged this is it.

@LivInTheLookingGlass And returned them.

predicted YES

RETVRN (to when two synonyms were no longer synonyms 🤔)

predicted NO

Trump's supporters (and some opponents) are fond of saying that if he is indicted, it will only make him stronger. Are they right?

https://manifold.markets/MattP/conditional-on-donald-trump-being-i

predicted YES

@MattP You should embed the market instead of linking to it IMO. Great new feature.

predicted YES

@BTE eek, it is way too short on mobile

predicted YES

@LivInTheLookingGlass You're right. Should just hide the chart on mobile maybe.

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