Conditional on Trump being convicted of any crime in any jurisdiction, what crime is he convicted of first?
Basic
8
Ṁ8222031
1%
0.6%
Maralago documents
0.5%
Georgia phone call
0%
Crimes referred by the January 6th Committee
98%
Stormy Daniels payments
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will Trump be convicted in federal court on any charge before the 2024 general election?
2% chance
Will Trump be convicted of any more felonies or federal crimes after the New York case, and before Election Day?
2% chance
Will Trump be Convicted, if his January 6th Trial begins before the election?
Conditional on Trump being convicted of any crime in any jurisdiction, in what year is the first such instance?
2024
Will Trump be convicted of a Felony before the presidential election, and will he win the election?
Conditional on being convicted before Election Day 2024, will Trump win the 2024 election?
52% chance
If convicted, will Donald Trump receive a custodial sentence in the NY criminal case?
6% chance
Will Trump get sentenced for any of the 34 felonies he was found guilty of before January 20, 2025?
60% chance
On which charges will Donald Trump be convicted in the January 6th Federal Case?
Will Trump be convicted in his DC case?
53% chance