Conditional on Trump being convicted of any crime in any jurisdiction, in what year is the first such instance?
Basic
13
Ṁ3102039
2024
expected
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
@Kronopath Pretty much. If he doesn't, resolves N/A. I have other markets which would resolve to MAX, but that seemed inappropriate here
Related questions
Related questions
Will Trump be Convicted, if his January 6th Trial begins before the election?
Will Trump be convicted in his DC case?
53% chance
Conditional on Trump being convicted of any crime in any jurisdiction, what crime is he convicted of first?
Will Donald Trump be elected president after having been convicted of at least one Federal charge?
13% chance
If Trump is convicted, will he be pardoned? (2028)
27% chance
Will Donald Trump be elected president after having been convicted of at least one Federal charge?
16% chance
If Trump wins, will Trump be found guilty of a crime before the end of 2026?
21% chance