Conditional on Trump being indicted for any crime in any jurisdiction, what crime is he indicted for first?

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Ṁ4041

resolved Apr 8

100%98.7%

Stormy Daniels hush money payments

0.4%Other

0.6%

Maralago documents

0.2%

Crimes referred by the January 6th commission

0.1%

Georgia election fraud phone call

0.0%

China indicts Trump under Chinese law

Feel free to describe groups of crimes rather than individual ones. If there is an overlap of answers I will select the first one submitted

Close date updated to 2030-12-31 11:59 pm

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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Admin resolved as Olivia hasnt used the site for several months and isnt replying to my dms

@DavidChee Thank you, and sorry again for the long absence. I've had to cut back on a lot of hobby stuff lately, and I appreciate the patience

@jack I think this can resolve.

Oops, meant to tag @IsaacKing . Should resolve to Stormy?

@Lorxus I'm not able to resolve markets that are still open unfortunately. That would be a job for @DavidChee.

@Lorxus can u link me to a source pls then I can resolve

@DavidChee https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_criminal_investigation_of_The_Trump_Organization out of all the things Trump could have been indicted about, the NYC Stormy Daniels case was the first one to actually result in indictment.

Possibly this can now resolve?

@Lorxus @LivInTheLookingGlass

@Boklam I will admit I did not consider this

@LivInTheLookingGlass One vaguely-plausible scenario: Trump wins in 2024; tensions rise between US and China; a US court sentences some Chinese high officials for (whatever); China sentences Trump in retaliation.

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