Conditional on Donald Trump being indicted before the 2024 presidential election, will he win said election?
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Nov 5
45%
chance

Question resolves to YES if Donald Trump is indicted in any US jurisdiction and then goes on to win the 2024 presidential election. Resolves to NO if he is indicted and does not win. Resolves to N/A if he is not indicted before the election.

Sep 4, 12:14am: clarification (hopefully well in advance) - if for some reason he was secretly indicted (aka it was sealed and not leaked before election day), that would still count for N/A resolution. This market is about the political effect of an indictment, so an indictment no one knows about until after the election doesn't meet the conditional.

Oct 2, 9:11am:

Sister market:

Oct 2, 9:14am: one last clarification - I'm only counting criminal indictments. I've seen some people refer to civil cases such as Tish James' as "indictments" - I don't know if that's correct in some technical sense (I don't think it is) but to be very clear, I am not counting it.

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predicts YES

Conditional has been fulfilled - this will resolve YES or NO, but not N/A (unless the 2024 election doesn't happen #DeepState #BidenCrimeFamily).

predicts YES

(... I'm joking)

bought Ṁ30 of NO

@MattP I wonder whether the title should now be changed to something like "Will Donald Trump win the 2024 presidential election", now the conditional is fulfilled.

predicts YES

Can't believe I didn't do this earlier - I made a market with the converse conditional aka the chance of him winning if NOT indicted. That way we get the market's consensus on if an indictment helps or hurts his chances of becoming president. Check it out below:

https://manifold.markets/MattP/conditional-on-donald-trump-not-bei

bought Ṁ100 of NO

This resolves no if he doesn't run, or he loses the primary, or if he loses the general. And the causality can go the other way where if he loses the primary or doesn't run, he is more likely to be indicted.

predicts YES

@MartinRandall yes - if he is indicted before the election and chooses not to run (or any other sequence of events that results in him not winning) I will resolve NO. Same if he is indicted after deciding not to run.

predicts YES

(last clause above should read "indicted after deciding not to run, but still before the election")

🤔

sold Ṁ21 of NO

quick exit because I think N/A is by far the most likely outcome and this doesn't resolve for 2 years AND I don't think trump is likely to win if he runs.

predicts YES

@Adam Yeah, if you don't think he will be indicted it doesn't make much sense to bet on this market. It mainly exists so I can see just how badly calibrated the "DJT is done!" crowd is with respect to the likely political effect of an indictment.

So this assumes he wins the primaries?

predicts YES

@BTE depending on the circumstances I could potentially hold resolution until the general election is over (e.g. there's a possibility he loses the primaries but decides to run 3rd party and somehow succeeds). We'd cross that bridge if we came to it though.

bought Ṁ50 of NO

@MattP The idea that he can run and defend criminal charges at the same time is kinda insane. You can’t talk to the media when you are on trial. What lawyer would represent him while he is going in front of crowds criticizing the government and probably the judge/prosecutors in ways that would get any other defendant a contempt of court charge. Not to mention the fact that he can’t use campaign funds to pay his criminal legal bills which are going to rapidly eat up his very limited cash resources. I think any charges immediately and permanently end his political future and thinking otherwise ignores many obvious obstacles nobody could overcome.

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