The big US presidential markets seem to be waiting on.... something....... but I've seen enough to resolve. AP has called the race and Trump has more than a 2% lead in PA with 97% of the vote in. It's over - Big Chungus has won.

Conditional has been fulfilled - this will resolve YES or NO, but not N/A (unless the 2024 election doesn't happen #DeepState #BidenCrimeFamily).

(... I'm joking)

@MattP I wonder whether the title should now be changed to something like "Will Donald Trump win the 2024 presidential election", now the conditional is fulfilled.

Can't believe I didn't do this earlier - I made a market with the converse conditional aka the chance of him winning if NOT indicted. That way we get the market's consensus on if an indictment helps or hurts his chances of becoming president. Check it out below:

https://manifold.markets/MattP/conditional-on-donald-trump-not-bei

This resolves no if he doesn't run, or he loses the primary, or if he loses the general. And the causality can go the other way where if he loses the primary or doesn't run, he is more likely to be indicted.

@MartinRandall yes - if he is indicted before the election and chooses not to run (or any other sequence of events that results in him not winning) I will resolve NO. Same if he is indicted after deciding not to run.

(last clause above should read "indicted after deciding not to run, but still before the election")

🤔

quick exit because I think N/A is by far the most likely outcome and this doesn't resolve for 2 years AND I don't think trump is likely to win if he runs.

@Adam Yeah, if you don't think he will be indicted it doesn't make much sense to bet on this market. It mainly exists so I can see just how badly calibrated the "DJT is done!" crowd is with respect to the likely political effect of an indictment.

So this assumes he wins the primaries?

@BTE depending on the circumstances I could potentially hold resolution until the general election is over (e.g. there's a possibility he loses the primaries but decides to run 3rd party and somehow succeeds). We'd cross that bridge if we came to it though.

@MattP The idea that he can run and defend criminal charges at the same time is kinda insane. You can’t talk to the media when you are on trial. What lawyer would represent him while he is going in front of crowds criticizing the government and probably the judge/prosecutors in ways that would get any other defendant a contempt of court charge. Not to mention the fact that he can’t use campaign funds to pay his criminal legal bills which are going to rapidly eat up his very limited cash resources. I think any charges immediately and permanently end his political future and thinking otherwise ignores many obvious obstacles nobody could overcome.