
Who will the next SCOTUS Justice to leave the court be?
39
Ṁ1kṀ5.3k2031
1.9%
John Roberts
27%
Clarence Thomas
61%
Samuel Alito
5%
Sonia Sotomayor
1.5%
Elena Kagan
0.2%
Neil Gorsuch
0.3%
Brett Kavanaugh
2%
Amy Coney Barrett
1.4%
Ketanji Brown Jackson
0%
A Justice not yet seated
If it's multiple justices simultaneously, this market will resolve to an per-person split of all correct answers (eg: if there were 11 Justices and all 11 left, it would resolve with each current member AND 2 shares on A Justice not yet seated
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@mods I am incapable of buying any YES on any of the 0% options. I keep getting this screen (seen below), but only when I tap YES. I do not get this screen when I tap NO on those options. I think this is a bug.


bought Ṁ1 YES
Amy Coney Barrett is YES-able now. The remaining 2 are still bugged.
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Which Supreme Court Justice will retire or die next?
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Whose departure will cause the next vacant U.S. Supreme Court seat ?
Will a Supreme Court Justice retire or be replaced for any reason by the end of 2026?
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Which Justices will cease to be members of the US Supreme Court before the end of 2026?
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