Who will be the last standing SCOTUS justice?
21
1.1kṀ27502121
30%
Amy Coney Barrett
22%
Neil Gorsuch
18%
Ketanji Brown Jackson
17%
Brett Kavanaugh
9%
Elena Kagan
9%
John Roberts
5%
Sonia Sotomayor
5%
Samuel Alito
4%
Clarence Thomas
The idea of this market is to predict the order in which justices will leave office.
I will add options as new justices are sworn in.
I will resolve a justice's market with a percentage when they leave office, either by stepping down, being removed or by death.
The n-th person to leave will be resolved with (n-1)%. For instance, the first justice to leave will be resolved with NO, and the second one with 1%. All justices that step down after the 100th will be resolved with YES.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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