Which SCOTUS justice will be the first to leave the bench?
35
1kṀ33142026
45%
Clarence Thomas
5%
John Roberts
30%
Samuel Alito
12%
Sonia Sotomayor
1.6%
Elena Kagan
1.5%
Niel Gorsuch
3%
Brett Kavanaugh
1.1%
Amy Coney Barrett
0.5%
Ketanji Brown Jackson
Out of all the current justices on the Supreme Court, who will be the first to stop serving for any reason? This could be due to death, resignation/retirement, impeachment, term limits being imposed, incapacitation, or any other reason.
The justices are listed here in order of seniority. I will extend the closure date if no one has left the bench yet.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will Sotomayor leave next?
12% chance
Whose departure will cause the next vacant U.S. Supreme Court seat ?
Which Supreme Court Justice will retire or die next?
Who will the next SCOTUS Justice to leave the court be?
Which Supreme Court justice will retire/die next?
Will any sitting Supreme Court justice leave before 2027?
52% chance
Which Justices will cease to be members of the US Supreme Court before the end of 2025?
Who will be the last standing SCOTUS justice?
Will the next justice to leave the Supreme Court be a conservative?
80% chance
Who will be the next member of the Supreme Court to vacate the bench?