Which SCOTUS justice will be the first to leave the bench?
17
148
Ṁ609Ṁ825
2026
1D
1W
1M
ALL
46%
Clarence Thomas
5%
John Roberts
9%
Samuel Alito
28%
Sonia Sotomayor
6%
Elena Kagan
1.7%
Niel Gorsuch
1.7%
Brett Kavanaugh
1.5%
Amy Coney Barrett
1.4%
Ketanji Brown Jackson
Out of all the current justices on the Supreme Court, who will be the first to stop serving for any reason? This could be due to death, resignation/retirement, impeachment, term limits being imposed, incapacitation, or any other reason.
The justices are listed here in order of seniority. I will extend the closure date if no one has left the bench yet.
Get Ṁ200 play money
Sort by:
@AndrewG It will resolve based on the first of the listed justices to leave the bench. That's why I worded the description as, "Out of all the current justices on the Supreme Court," to exclude any new justices who are added.
Related questions
Will there be a vacancy on the Supreme Court by the end of 2024?
12% chance
Will Sotomayor leave next?
27% chance
Will a US Supreme Court justice retire in 2024?
14% chance
Who will the next SCOTUS Justice to leave the court be?
Will the number of justices on the SCOTUS be increased by the end of 2028?
13% chance
How many US Supreme Court justices will there be in 2025?
Will Alito leave next?
10% chance
Who will be the next justice confirmed to the Supreme Court of the United States?
Will Samuel Alito leave the Supreme Court before 2025?
6% chance
When will the U.S. Supreme Court stop having a conservative majority?