Which Supreme Court Justice will retire or die next?
22
1kṀ5040
2030
10%
John Roberts
40%
Clarence Thomas
40%
Samuel Alito
3%
Sonia Sotomayor
0.9%
Elena Kagan
1.4%
Neil Gorsuch
4%
Brett Kavanaugh
0.7%
Amy Coney Barrett
0.6%
Ketanji Brown Jackson

Resolves when any Supreme Court Justice retires or dies while serving.

  • Update 2025-22-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Any Justice leaving the Court will resolve this as YES.

    • Expanding the size of the Court has no impact on a Justice leaving it.

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How is the resolution affected in the following edge cases?

I. Justice impeached or otherwise removed by means not including retirement/death.

II. Expansion of the court to include new justices

@SentientTree Forgive me. Somehow missed this question earlier.
I. Any Justice leaving the Court will resolve this as YES.
II. Expanding the size of the Court has no impact on a Justice leaving it.

@JeffBerman Thanks. For II the scenario in question would be e.g. a 10th justice is added and leaves the court before any of the current justices leave, but I suppose that doesn't count since they wouldn't be listed. The other edge case would be multiple justices leaving the court simultaneously, which I assume would be an even split % between all justices who leave.

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