Which Supreme Court justice will retire/die next?
Plus
50
Ṁ37852030
62%
Clarence Thomas
13%
Sonya Sotomayor
0.4%
Amy Coney Barrett
1.1%
Elena Kagan
0.6%
Brett Kavanaugh
7%
John Roberts
15%
Samuel Alito
0.3%
Neil Gorsuch
0.2%
Ketanji Brown Jackson
Resolves based on which seat is first to become open due to the resignation or death of a current justice.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Yeah, same here
@mods, it glitches out whenever you try to bet on a 0% option here
bought Ṁ50 Clarence Thomas YES
@PaintspotInfez It seems to be working for me. I was able to bet Yes on every option.
I prefer binary questions instead of perimutuals, because with perimutuals even if you're right your payoffs get diluted to nothing by people who bet after you with more information than you.
https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/will-clarence-thomas-leave-the-supr
@JonathanRay Created another binary market for Alito
https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/will-samuel-alito-leave-the-supreme
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