Which Supreme Court justice will retire/die next?
Basic
36
Ṁ1.7k2030
1D
1W
1M
ALL
51%
Clarance Thomas
39%
Sonya Sotomayor
0%
Amy Coney Barrett
0.5%
Elena Kagan
0%
Brett Kavanaugh
1.2%
John Roberts
9%
Samuel Alito
0%
Neil Gorsuch
0%
Ketanji Brown Jackson
Resolves based on which seat is first to become open due to the resignation or death of a current justice.
Get Ṁ600 play money
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I prefer binary questions instead of perimutuals, because with perimutuals even if you're right your payoffs get diluted to nothing by people who bet after you with more information than you.
https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/will-clarence-thomas-leave-the-supr
@JonathanRay Created another binary market for Alito
https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/will-samuel-alito-leave-the-supreme
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