Which Supreme Court justice will retire/die next?
Basic
37
Ṁ1.8k2030
1D
1W
1M
ALL
40%
Clarance Thomas
54%
Sonya Sotomayor
0%
Amy Coney Barrett
0.1%
Elena Kagan
0%
Brett Kavanaugh
1%
John Roberts
4%
Samuel Alito
0%
Neil Gorsuch
0%
Ketanji Brown Jackson
Resolves based on which seat is first to become open due to the resignation or death of a current justice.
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
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I prefer binary questions instead of perimutuals, because with perimutuals even if you're right your payoffs get diluted to nothing by people who bet after you with more information than you.
https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/will-clarence-thomas-leave-the-supr
@JonathanRay Created another binary market for Alito
https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/will-samuel-alito-leave-the-supreme
Related questions
Related questions
Which Supreme Court Justice will retire or die next?
Who will the next SCOTUS Justice to leave the court be?
Which SCOTUS justice will be the first to leave the bench?
What will cause the next Supreme Court vacancy?
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51% chance
Will the next justice to leave the Supreme Court be a conservative?
55% chance
Will any members of the current members of the US Supreme Court retire or die by 2024?
28% chance
Who will be the next member of the Supreme Court to vacate the bench?
Will a United States Supreme Court Justice die, retire or be impeached and removed before Jan. 20th 2025?
23% chance
Will a US Supreme Court justice retire in 2024?
20% chance