Which Supreme Court justice will retire/die next?
62
1.3kṀ71082030
40%
Clarence Thomas
10%
Sonya Sotomayor
1.1%
Amy Coney Barrett
1.1%
Elena Kagan
1.8%
Brett Kavanaugh
5%
John Roberts
38%
Samuel Alito
1.7%
Neil Gorsuch
1.1%
Ketanji Brown Jackson
Resolves based on which seat is first to become open due to the resignation or death of a current justice.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Who will be the next justice confirmed to the Supreme Court of the United States?
What will cause the next Supreme Court vacancy?
Will the next justice to leave the Supreme Court be a conservative?
80% chance
Will a Supreme Court justice retire during Trump’s second term?
89% chance
Will a 10th Judge be Appointed to the US Supreme Court by 2026?
3% chance
When will the next justice be confirmed to the Supreme Court of the United States?
Who will be the last standing SCOTUS justice?
Will a supreme court justice die in office during trump's term?
35% chance
Will the next Supreme Court justice have three names?
18% chance
Sort by:
I prefer binary questions instead of perimutuals, because with perimutuals even if you're right your payoffs get diluted to nothing by people who bet after you with more information than you.
https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/will-clarence-thomas-leave-the-supr
@JonathanRay Created another binary market for Alito
https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/will-samuel-alito-leave-the-supreme
People are also trading
Related questions
Who will be the next justice confirmed to the Supreme Court of the United States?
What will cause the next Supreme Court vacancy?
Will the next justice to leave the Supreme Court be a conservative?
80% chance
Will a Supreme Court justice retire during Trump’s second term?
89% chance
Will a 10th Judge be Appointed to the US Supreme Court by 2026?
3% chance
When will the next justice be confirmed to the Supreme Court of the United States?
Who will be the last standing SCOTUS justice?
Will a supreme court justice die in office during trump's term?
35% chance
Will the next Supreme Court justice have three names?
18% chance