Which Supreme Court justice will retire/die next?
SCOTUSUS JudiciaryMana Seeds Experiment
Basic
37
Ṁ1.8k
2030
40%
Clarance Thomas
54%
Sonya Sotomayor
0%
Amy Coney Barrett
0.1%
Elena Kagan
0%
Brett Kavanaugh
1%
John Roberts
4%
Samuel Alito
0%
Neil Gorsuch
0%
Ketanji Brown Jackson

Resolves based on which seat is first to become open due to the resignation or death of a current justice.

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bought Ṁ20 N/A

AIito is only 21 months younger than Thomas, and Thomas just turned down a huge contract from John Oliver.

I prefer binary questions instead of perimutuals, because with perimutuals even if you're right your payoffs get diluted to nothing by people who bet after you with more information than you.

https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/will-clarence-thomas-leave-the-supr

@JonathanRay Created another binary market for Alito
https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/will-samuel-alito-leave-the-supreme

Betting on Thomas - Rs seem more likely than not to win the 2024 election, and strategic retirement seems more likely after that (meanwhile Sotomayor is still young enough that she's unlikely to retire this term).
Clarence
@MattP well shit, how do I fix it??
@BTE I do not know!
@MattP well at least I screwed up one on each side so nobody can accuse me of bias.
Sonia

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