Which Supreme Court justice will retire/die next?
62
1.3kṀ6760
2030
39%
Clarence Thomas
13%
Sonya Sotomayor
1%
Amy Coney Barrett
1%
Elena Kagan
1.9%
Brett Kavanaugh
4%
John Roberts
36%
Samuel Alito
2%
Neil Gorsuch
1.5%
Ketanji Brown Jackson

Resolves based on which seat is first to become open due to the resignation or death of a current justice.

SCOTUS
US Judiciary
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I cannot bet YES on the 0% options. Neat!

sold Ṁ0 YES

Yeah, same here

@mods, it glitches out whenever you try to bet on a 0% option here

bought Ṁ50 YES

@PaintspotInfez It seems to be working for me. I was able to bet Yes on every option.

bought Ṁ20 N/A

AIito is only 21 months younger than Thomas, and Thomas just turned down a huge contract from John Oliver.

I prefer binary questions instead of perimutuals, because with perimutuals even if you're right your payoffs get diluted to nothing by people who bet after you with more information than you.

https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/will-clarence-thomas-leave-the-supr

@JonathanRay Created another binary market for Alito
https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/will-samuel-alito-leave-the-supreme

Betting on Thomas - Rs seem more likely than not to win the 2024 election, and strategic retirement seems more likely after that (meanwhile Sotomayor is still young enough that she's unlikely to retire this term).
Clarence
@MattP well shit, how do I fix it??
@BTE I do not know!
@MattP well at least I screwed up one on each side so nobody can accuse me of bias.
Sonia

People are also trading

Which Justices will cease to be members of the US Supreme Court before the end of 2025?
Who will be the next justice confirmed to the Supreme Court of the United States?
Will a Supreme Court Justice retire or be replaced for any reason by the end of 2026?
42% chance
Will a Supreme Court justice retire during Trump’s second term?
92% chance
What will cause the next Supreme Court vacancy?
Will the next justice to leave the Supreme Court be a conservative?
80% chance
Who will be the next person appointed to the Supreme Court of the United States?
Will any sitting Supreme Court justice leave before 2027?
52% chance
When will the next justice be confirmed to the Supreme Court of the United States?
Who will be the last standing SCOTUS justice?
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