Which Supreme Court justice will retire/die next?
SCOTUS•US Judiciary•Mana Seeds Experiment
21
249
2030
49%
Clarance Thomas
25%
Sonya Sotomayor
0.7%
Amy Coney Barrett
0.8%
Elena Kagan
0.7%
Brett Kavanaugh
18%
John Roberts
5%
Samuel Alito
0.7%
Neil Gorsuch
0.7%
Ketanji Brown Jackson

Resolves based on which seat is first to become open due to the resignation or death of a current justice.

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I prefer binary questions instead of perimutuals, because with perimutuals even if you're right your payoffs get diluted to nothing by people who bet after you with more information than you.

https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/will-clarence-thomas-leave-the-supr

@JonathanRay Created another binary market for Alito
https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/will-samuel-alito-leave-the-supreme

bought Ṁ10 of Clarance Thomas
Betting on Thomas - Rs seem more likely than not to win the 2024 election, and strategic retirement seems more likely after that (meanwhile Sotomayor is still young enough that she's unlikely to retire this term).
Clarence
bought Ṁ11 of Sonya Sotomayor
@MattP well shit, how do I fix it??
@BTE I do not know!
@MattP well at least I screwed up one on each side so nobody can accuse me of bias.
Sonia

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