Resolution criteria
The 2025-26 Iranian protests began at the end of December 2025 amid a deepening economic crisis, initially sparked by frustration over skyrocketing inflation, rising food prices, and severe depreciation of the Iranian rial, before evolving into a broader movement demanding an end to the Islamic Republic's rule.
Resolution will be determined by:
a) highest editorial consensus on Wikipedia on the death count on 20 March 2025
b) if a) is lacking, by checking the conservative estimate of deaths on the aforementioned Wikipedia page's causality section, or the equivalent information in a verified redirect/article move/paraphernalia (eg. infobox).
c) In case of noticeable discrepancies with other reports such as lack of editorial updates, shuttering of Wikipedia, or similar- reports from newspapers of record or news agencies of record, human rights organizations (such as HRANA), and Iranian state media will be considered, in order of preference.
If Wikipedia is temporarily blacked out for less than a period of two days, if this period includes the resolution date, the latest diff before the resolution date will be used for determination of the death count per a) or b). Otherwise, c) will be used.
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Regarding the condition a) criterion, there is still some disputes on the Talk pages that I see, but it's very unlikely that it'll find a resolution other than 150+.
Regarding the condition b) criterion, unambiguously 150+.
If someone wants to raise a concern in the form of a condition c) source as to why the current count is not 150+, let me know.
@Lilemont Okay, I don't think anyone is disputing that it's at least 150+ anymore.
If there are no objections, I'll wait a few more days (or when Internet connectivity in Iran goes back to a relatively normal level, field investigations shape up with the improved conditions again, etc), and resolve, since it's highly unlikely it will be revised to less than 150.
@Lilemont Due to reports of a planned permanent firewalling of the Internet, we'd have to wait quite a while for that, so... nevermind
If anyone believes that China or Russia would send special forces to suppress protests in Iran, that is not realistic. The core basis of the regime lies within Iran’s Shi’a Muslim population. If non-Muslim foreign forces (kyafirs) were seen killing Iranians, that core support base would likely turn against Khamenei.
Chinese and Russian personnel are generally distinguishable from Iranians, making covert involvement implausible. The deployment of foreign special force in Iran in support of Khamenei would therefore be counterproductive rather than stabilizing.
I also believe that most Muslim countries, possibly with the exception of Iraq would be unwilling to provide direct security support to Khamenei. Under these conditions, a Ukraine-style revolutionary 2014 scenario cannot be ruled out and is entirely possible.
https://manifold.markets/Areal/will-irans-supreme-leader-ali-khame?