Khamenei out in 2026?

MANIFOLD

Ṁ150Ṁ12k

Dec 31

49%

chance

ALL

Will he cease to be the leader of Iran during 2026 (Tehran time)?

Update 2026-01-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution process for ambiguous situations:
- If Khamenei's power status is ambiguous, the creator will wait a few days for clarity
- Wikipedia will be used as a primary source: if Wikipedia is stable and consistent that he's out of power, the market will likely resolve YES based on that

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opened a Ṁ5,000 YES at 56% order

Big limit order up at 56%. More available.

@creator - your current follow-up "out" options don’t explicitly cover the scenario. Could you please add involuntary travel to the U.S., Turkey, or Israel in the description, so it’s clearly Wil trigger from a single removal event?

This would help avoid confusion with the Maduro-travel option, abduction by fireign forces, but still in power, .

I shortened the flee to Russia in this question:

https://manifold.markets/Areal/will-irans-supreme-leader-ali-khame

opened a Ṁ2,500 YES at 42% order

@Areal If he's no longer in power, that counts as out. If it's ambiguous we're probably going to wait a few days and be patient. I'm not expecting news reports to be clear and consistent immediately. If Wikipedia is stable and consistent that he's out, we'll probably go with that.