Khamenei out in 2026?

Ṁ150Ṁ17k

resolved Mar 1

Resolved

YES

ALL

Will he cease to be the leader of Iran during 2026 (Tehran time)?

Update 2026-01-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution process for ambiguous situations:
- If Khamenei's power status is ambiguous, the creator will wait a few days for clarity
- Wikipedia will be used as a primary source: if Wikipedia is stable and consistent that he's out of power, the market will likely resolve YES based on that

Market context

Get

1,000

to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#	Trader	Total profit
1		Ṁ4,141
2		Ṁ1,339
3		Ṁ931
4		Ṁ781
5		Ṁ218

People are also trading

Will Iran's regime fall in 2026?

43% chance

Who will be paramount leader of Iran on January 1st 2027?

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be killed by US/Israeli forces in 2026?

45% chance

Mojtaba Khamenei Supreme Leader of Iran on July 1st, 2026

50% chance

Will the Iranian regime be overthrown?

47% chance

Reza Pahlavi enters Iran by end of year 2026

Sort by:

https://apnews.com/article/iran-supreme-leader-ayatollah-ali-khamenei-dead-5b13b69b708c4ed38e8f95f5fb41a597 - apparently confirmed by state TV

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who led the Islamic Republic since 1989, is dead at 86

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who assembled theocratic power in Iran over the decades as its supreme leader and sought to turn it into a regional powerhouse, has died.

sold Ṁ5 NO

https://www.reuters.com/world/iran-crisis-live-explosions-tehran-israel-announces-strike-2026-02-28/

I'll wait a bit in case of conflicting reports, but this looks like a Yes resolution to me.

opened a Ṁ5,000 YES at 56% order

Big limit order up at 56%. More available.

@creator - your current follow-up "out" options don’t explicitly cover the scenario. Could you please add involuntary travel to the U.S., Turkey, or Israel in the description, so it’s clearly Wil trigger from a single removal event?

This would help avoid confusion with the Maduro-travel option, abduction by fireign forces, but still in power, .

I shortened the flee to Russia in this question:

https://manifold.markets/Areal/will-irans-supreme-leader-ali-khame

opened a Ṁ2,500 YES at 42% order

@Areal If he's no longer in power, that counts as out. If it's ambiguous we're probably going to wait a few days and be patient. I'm not expecting news reports to be clear and consistent immediately. If Wikipedia is stable and consistent that he's out, we'll probably go with that.