There are widely varying reports of the number of people killed by the Iranian regime on the dates of Jan. 8 and 9, 2026 as part of their efforts to suppress uprisings. This market will resolve to the best death toll estimate available at the close date of this market. I'll use my best judgment, and I may choose to do a weighted average of more than one source if there are multiple credible sources whose estimates land in different buckets.

As of today, Jan. 14: CBS News and a few other sources are reporting 12,000, but most estimates are lower.