Will GPT-5 get the Monty *Fall* problem correct?

I will ask GPT-5 this question when I get the chance, either personally or by getting a friend to try it for me.

Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. The host is ignorant about what is behind each door. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host walks across the stage and falls on accident, revealing a goat behind door No. 3. He then picks himself up, and says "Whoops. Sorry about that. But now that we know that a goat is behind door No. 3, do you want to change your selection and pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?

This question resolves to YES if GPT-5 says that there is no advantage to switching your choice, and resolves to NO otherwise.

I will only consider the actual first answer that I get from GPT-5, without trying different prompts. I will not use screenshots that people send me to resolve the question.

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Nikola avatar
Nikolais predicting YES at 65%

Interestingly, Bard reliably gets it wrong

MarkIngraham avatar
Mark Ingrahamis predicting NO at 60%

I asked gpt to do basic arithmetic and it was wrong.

BenjaminSipos avatar
Benjamin Sipos

Sorry to burst your bubble. There is no "correct" answer here.


JosephNoonan avatar
Joseph Noonanbought Ṁ10 of NO

@BenjaminSipos This problem has nothing to do with the Sleeping Beauty problem. In the Monty Fall problem, each remaining door has a 50/50 chance of having the car behind it, regardless of the answer to the Sleeping Beauty problem. Also, even if this was the Sleeping Beauty problem, there would still be a correct answer. "Experts disagree" does not imply "no correct answer".

NathanpmYoung avatar
Nathan Young

Just so I understand, you have gained knowledge, but now rather than being 1/3 on your door you should be 50% sure it's right,right?

LukeFrymire avatar
Luke Frymirebought Ṁ10 of YES

@NathanpmYoung I believe so! No benefit to switching doors.

LeoSpitz avatar
Leo Spitz