What's the definition of "release"? Gets announced by OpenAI? Is available to anyone? Is available on Mira's OpenAI account? Is open to the general public?

@JonasVollmer Anyone unaffiliated with OpenAI has access. Red teamers, employees, board members, investors, journalists or companies with restricted demos or custom negotiated access don't count. Researchers have a separate researcher agreement, so they don't count. But even a single person with access that isn't NDA or custom legal agreement(besides the standard EULA) will count.

There's rumors that Figure the robotics company already has private access to some model. If that model is GPT-5, it won't count even if the robots are generally for sale.

It doesn't have to be announced even. If people are given special access weeks before it's announced and available on ChatGPT+, but they're not under NDA, that access counts as a release.

If there's a waitlist that anyone can sign up for or pay for, accepted persons count as a release as long as you wouldn't be sued or arrested for revealing outputs or that you have access or running prompts for people.

I expect it to be "released" along with an official announcement, like GPT-4 on March 14, 2023. So most of these cases probably won't matter.

How does this resolve if there is no 4.5?

@Joshua If 4.5 is released, it immediately resolves NO. And if 5 is released it immediately resolves YES. If both are released at the same time, then it resolves NO.

If neither releases, it should've resolved 50%(Ambiguous) but it was before the tagging and I didn't tag it. So it resolves NO by default.

Gotcha.

Also, there's a typo in the default tag, right?

• Default: Option resolves NO by default at end of 2024

That should be end 2025? Since before you said:

If GPT-5 is not released by end of 2025 or insufficient information is presented, options resolve NO by default unless specified to resolve differently.

@Joshua Yeah, it was copied from the other market. All the defaults apply at end of 2025.

Good material here

@Joshua

Clarification: what if it's GPT-5 by another name?

@jim It has to be described as GPT-5. Otherwise it's just an internal name, and I think I remember rumors that 4.5 or 4 was supposed to be GPT-5.

But I'll accept variations like "the 5th major iteration of the GPT series, GPT-Mega", or "GPT-5 Turbo".

Lying/jailbreaking to get it to try is OK. Bar for translation accuracy isn't high, as long as it's clear that GPT can read it