What will be true about GPT-5?
Basic
180
19k
2026
61%
It won't release during 2024
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4mo
14%
It will release between May and October 2024
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4mo
16%
It will release in November 2024
·
4mo
43%
It will release in December 2024
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4mo
44%
Its knowledge cutoff will be in or before April 2024
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4mo
12%
Its knowledge cutoff will be any day in May 2024
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4mo
8%
Its knowledge cutoff will be any day in June 2024
·
4mo
32%
Its knowledge cutoff will be in or later than July 2024
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4mo
93%
It will support at least 199.5k context
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4mo
62%
It will support at least 499.5k context
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4mo
37%
It will support at least 999.5k context
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4mo
13%
Output tokens will be cheaper than GPT-4 Turbo(as of March 12, 2024)
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4mo
19%
OpenAI will claim it faster than GPT-4 Turbo
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4mo
74%
It will have a different logo color from green, black, or purple(based on resolution of https://manifold.markets/MiraBot/what-color-will-the-next-openai-llm?r=TWlyYUJvdA)
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4mo
89%
It will be trending on Twitter the day of release. A name like "GPT", "OpenAI", "GPT-5" could all count. Checked from a clean account.
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4mo
81%
It will be able to translate a page of manga (JP image -> EN text)
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4mo
18%
Will be claimed to be AGI by the New York times up to 3 months after release.
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4mo
6%
Will be claimed to be AGI by OpenAI up to 3 months after release.
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4mo
5%
Will be claimed to be AGI by Wikipedia up to 3 months after release.
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4mo
58%
It will use a new architecture meaningfully different from GPT-4
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4mo

"GPT-5" refers to a model named or presented as "GPT-5"(or a variation). This can be the model id, or a description like "the fifth generation of the GPT series". Benchmarks and features are not considered: Only how the model is presented by OpenAI.

Add your own options. One who creates an option is responsible for clarifying follow-up questions. @Mira may interpret them if not, or resolve the option NA.

If GPT-5 is not released by end of 2025 or insufficient information is presented, options resolve NO by default unless specified to resolve differently.

If GPT-5 is released, moderators should close this market for trading immediately.

Resolution tags. Place at the beginning of an option to change how it resolves.

  • Default: Option resolves NO by default at end of 2025

  • Ambiguous(2025): Option resolves 50% by default at end of 2025.

See also: /MiraBot/what-will-be-true-about-gpt45

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The new "GPT-4o" counts as GPT-4.5 in the paired market, since it was based on the name. "A model with separate branding in the GPT-4 series". So I've resolved the 4.5 option here to match.

"GPT-5" designation here is also based on the name. I will not be looking at benchmarks, only how the model is presented by OpenAI.

FYI: If gpt2-chatbot was GPT-5 then it will have already been "released". That seems unlikely, but it's important to note. Ditto for GPT-4.5.

@Mira this conflicts with your earlier clarification:

has to be described as GPT-5. Otherwise it's just an internal name

Resolve the April answer please

@chrisjbillington It may have been "released" and may soon be known as GPT-5, but it wasn't "released as GPT-5". It need only be "released" not "released and known to be released", so it can't be resolved yet.

We had a similar situation with the Mistral-medium leak: /Mira_/when-will-mistralmedium-weights-be It may have happened in January, but we don't know.

This does mean all of the release options are blocked until end of 2025, waiting for a statement on what this model is. Even if GPT-5 is released in a couple months, we can't resolve those YES because it might retroactively resolve an earlier "release" YES if later known. (but if nothing is learned, at end of 2025 it would resolve to the official release since earliers would resolve NO in absence of information)

@Mira that's total BS Mira

@Mira have you come around about this yet? If so, resolution please.

bought Ṁ20 It will release in D... NO

What's the definition of "release"? Gets announced by OpenAI? Is available to anyone? Is available on Mira's OpenAI account? Is open to the general public?

@JonasVollmer Anyone unaffiliated with OpenAI has access. Red teamers, employees, board members, investors, journalists or companies with restricted demos or custom negotiated access don't count. Researchers have a separate researcher agreement, so they don't count. But even a single person with access that isn't NDA or custom legal agreement(besides the standard EULA) will count.

There's rumors that Figure the robotics company already has private access to some model. If that model is GPT-5, it won't count even if the robots are generally for sale.

It doesn't have to be announced even. If people are given special access weeks before it's announced and available on ChatGPT+, but they're not under NDA, that access counts as a release.

If there's a waitlist that anyone can sign up for or pay for, accepted persons count as a release as long as you wouldn't be sued or arrested for revealing outputs or that you have access or running prompts for people.

I expect it to be "released" along with an official announcement, like GPT-4 on March 14, 2023. So most of these cases probably won't matter.

bought Ṁ10 Answer #9ffdae4547f0 YES

How does this resolve if there is no 4.5?

@Joshua If 4.5 is released, it immediately resolves NO. And if 5 is released it immediately resolves YES. If both are released at the same time, then it resolves NO.

If neither releases, it should've resolved 50%(Ambiguous) but it was before the tagging and I didn't tag it. So it resolves NO by default.

bought Ṁ10 It will support at l... NO

Gotcha.

Also, there's a typo in the default tag, right?

  • Default: Option resolves NO by default at end of 2024

That should be end 2025? Since before you said:

If GPT-5 is not released by end of 2025 or insufficient information is presented, options resolve NO by default unless specified to resolve differently.

@Joshua Yeah, it was copied from the other market. All the defaults apply at end of 2025.

Good material here

Clarification: what if it's GPT-5 by another name?

@jim It has to be described as GPT-5. Otherwise it's just an internal name, and I think I remember rumors that 4.5 or 4 was supposed to be GPT-5.

But I'll accept variations like "the 5th major iteration of the GPT series, GPT-Mega", or "GPT-5 Turbo".

It will be able to translate a page of manga (JP image -> EN text)

Lying/jailbreaking to get it to try is OK. Bar for translation accuracy isn't high, as long as it's clear that GPT can read it