What will be true about GPT-5?
116
686
5.9K
2026
34%
It won't release during 2024
3%
It will release in April 2024 or before
47%
It will release between May and October 2024
9%
It will release in November 2024
9%
It will release in December 2024
36%
Its knowledge cutoff will be in or before April 2024
12%
Its knowledge cutoff will be any day in May 2024
12%
Its knowledge cutoff will be any day in June 2024
42%
Its knowledge cutoff will be in or later than July 2024
93%
It will support at least 199.5k context
37%
It will support at least 499.5k context
26%
It will support at least 999.5k context
19%
Output tokens will be cheaper than GPT-4 Turbo(as of March 12, 2024)
42%
OpenAI will claim it faster than GPT-4 Turbo
84%
It will have a different logo color from green, black, or purple(based on resolution of https://manifold.markets/MiraBot/what-color-will-the-next-openai-llm?r=TWlyYUJvdA)
89%
It will be trending on Twitter the day of release. A name like "GPT", "OpenAI", "GPT-5" could all count. Checked from a clean account.
76%
It will be able to translate a page of manga (JP image -> EN text)
22%
Will be claimed to be AGI by the New York times up to 3 months after release.
6%
Will be claimed to be AGI by OpenAI up to 3 months after release.
5%
Will be claimed to be AGI by Wikipedia up to 3 months after release.

Add your own options. One who creates an option is responsible for clarifying follow-up questions. @Mira may interpret them if not, or resolve the option NA.

If GPT-5 is not released by end of 2025 or insufficient information is presented, options resolve NO by default unless specified to resolve differently.

If GPT-5 is released, moderators should close this market for trading immediately.

Resolution tags. Place at the beginning of an option to change how it resolves.

  • Default: Option resolves NO by default at end of 2025

  • Conditional(2024): Option resolves NA by default at end of 2025

  • Ambiguous(2025): Option resolves 50% by default at end of 2025.

See also: /MiraBot/what-will-be-true-about-gpt45

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bought Ṁ20 It will release in D... NO

What's the definition of "release"? Gets announced by OpenAI? Is available to anyone? Is available on Mira's OpenAI account? Is open to the general public?

@JonasVollmer Anyone unaffiliated with OpenAI has access. Red teamers, employees, board members, investors, journalists or companies with restricted demos or custom negotiated access don't count. Researchers have a separate researcher agreement, so they don't count. But even a single person with access that isn't NDA or custom legal agreement(besides the standard EULA) will count.

There's rumors that Figure the robotics company already has private access to some model. If that model is GPT-5, it won't count even if the robots are generally for sale.

It doesn't have to be announced even. If people are given special access weeks before it's announced and available on ChatGPT+, but they're not under NDA, that access counts as a release.

If there's a waitlist that anyone can sign up for or pay for, accepted persons count as a release as long as you wouldn't be sued or arrested for revealing outputs or that you have access or running prompts for people.

I expect it to be "released" along with an official announcement, like GPT-4 on March 14, 2023. So most of these cases probably won't matter.

It will release before GPT 4.5
bought Ṁ10 It will release befo... YES

How does this resolve if there is no 4.5?

@Joshua If 4.5 is released, it immediately resolves NO. And if 5 is released it immediately resolves YES. If both are released at the same time, then it resolves NO.

If neither releases, it should've resolved 50%(Ambiguous) but it was before the tagging and I didn't tag it. So it resolves NO by default.

bought Ṁ10 It will support at l... NO

Gotcha.

Also, there's a typo in the default tag, right?

  • Default: Option resolves NO by default at end of 2024

That should be end 2025? Since before you said:

If GPT-5 is not released by end of 2025 or insufficient information is presented, options resolve NO by default unless specified to resolve differently.

@Joshua Yeah, it was copied from the other market. All the defaults apply at end of 2025.

Good material here

Clarification: what if it's GPT-5 by another name?

@jim It has to be described as GPT-5. Otherwise it's just an internal name, and I think I remember rumors that 4.5 or 4 was supposed to be GPT-5.

But I'll accept variations like "the 5th major iteration of the GPT series, GPT-Mega", or "GPT-5 Turbo".

It will be able to translate a page of manga (JP image -> EN text)

Lying/jailbreaking to get it to try is OK. Bar for translation accuracy isn't high, as long as it's clear that GPT can read it