Will I be impressed by GPT-5?

245Ṁ1534

Dec 15

36%

chance

ALL

Whenever OPENAI releases in general availability a model named GPT-5 (or if they choose to skip to GPT-6 like the iPhone X or Windows 10 or change naming conventions, I'll resolve this market nonetheless if it's uncontroverial), I'll use it for 2 weeks and resolve to my feelings.

Being impressed is thinking that GPT-5 is substantially better than GPT-4. I use GPT-4 to do data analysis, explain topics to me, summarize texts, interpret texts, and to a lesser extent, write text to me. I am also a heavy Claude user. (claude seems smarter when dealing with longer context windows based in my vibes).

If by then I'm using another AI assistant, like one made by another company, I'll compare GPT-5 to that model.

I won't bet and I will provide guidance.

GPT-5 Speculation

GPT-4 speculation

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How will "GPT 5 Exceeds Expectations" resolve?

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Will people complain about GPT-5?

99% chance

Will GPT-5 destroy the world?

2% chance

What will be true about GPT-5?

Will GPT-5 ace exams?

78% chance

Will GPT-5 be more competent than me in my area of expertise?

35% chance

Will GPT-5 have Atari skills?

2% chance

Will GPT-5 be able to replace the average web developer?

14% chance

What score will GPT-5 achieve on GPQA?

Will I judge GPT-5 to be smarter than o1 (not preview) after both are released?

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I think the market will be decided taking into account what model you are currently using.

"If by then I'm using another AI assistant, like one made by another company, I'll compare GPT-5 to that model."

Can you clarify which model the comparison is going to be made to?

@MP What do you think?

polymarket isn't:

@AndrewG (though, notably, this question is "Being impressed is thinking that GPT-5 is substantially better than GPT-4.", which is obviously way way higher)