Add your own bets.

I will resolve according to publicly available information and my best judgment.

Will be resolved at end of 2025 at the latest.

• Update 2025-06-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the answer "Iran successfully bomb an Israeli power plant or offshore platform", the creator has specified:

  • An oil refinery is not considered a power plant.

  • The market refers to gas offshore platforms.

• Update 2025-06-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the answer 'Iran successfully bomb an Israeli power plant or offshore platform', a power plant must be for civilian use.

• Update 2025-06-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated they would resolve this market to YES if the Israeli government dissolves for any reason before the market's end date.

• Update 2025-06-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding a potential bombing of the Fordow facility, the creator has specified their evidence standard for resolution:

  • A statement from a single political figure (e.g., Donald Trump) is not sufficient on its own.

  • The creator requires confirmation that the facility was destroyed before resolving.

• Update 2025-06-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For an answer related to a 'successful bombing' of the Fordow facility, a strike will not be considered successful if the centrifuges are not destroyed.

• Update 2025-06-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For answers proposed by users, the creator has stated they will resolve the answer based on the proposing user's terms and decision.

• Update 2025-06-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the answer for the Fordow facility bombing:

  • The creator will wait for a proper damage assessment before resolving this answer.

  • This assessment period could take weeks or months.

  • The current IAEA statement is considered insufficient for resolution.

• Update 2025-06-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For an answer related to an 'attempt to broker a cease-fire/peace deal', the creator has specified that:

  • A proposal that is 'merely declarative' is insufficient for a YES resolution.

  • There must be an 'honest attempt' to 'actually push negotiations'.

• Update 2025-06-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the answer 'China attempts to broker a cease-fire/peace deal', the creator has specified the following conditions for a YES resolution:

  • There must be reports of actual ceasefire negotiations.

  • The negotiations must include both sides of the conflict.

  • China must be mediating the negotiations.

• Update 2025-06-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the answer 'A fifth generation fighter jet is destroyed', the creator has specified their evidence standard:

  • A claim from Iran, especially if supported by weak evidence like an AI-generated photo, is considered insufficient.

  • The creator will look for confirmation from the Israeli Air Force (IAF).

• Update 2025-06-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the answer 'Fordow facility successfully bombed', the creator has decided to resolve it to N/A due to what they judged to be unclear resolution criteria.