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MANIFOLD
April 8, US-IRAN war ceasefire: prop bets
8
Ṁ150Ṁ215
May 31
34%
S&P 500 exceeds $6900 by April 15
30%
WTI and Brent below $120 till June
21%
Strait of Hormuz remains open till May
17%
It lasts for exactly 2 weeks
17%
War ends permanently
14%
S&P 500 remains above $6550 till April 15

Resolution criteria

Resolves based on official statements or verified reporting from major news outlets (e.g., Reuters, AP)

WTI and Brent crude below $140 until June 1, 2026: MarketWatch

S&P 500: S&P Dow Jones Indices.

Market context
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