MANIFOLD
US–Venezuela conflict prop bets
28
Ṁ525Ṁ2k
2027
97%
Delcy Rodríguez remains as acting president of Venezuela through 15 February 2026
87%
Nicolás Maduro is convicted and incarcerated in a US prison
86%
Despite all unlawful actions by the US, venezuelan economy prospers.
32%
Will María Machado return to Venezuela before 2026 June 1?
21%
US deploys ground troops to Venezuela
8%
UN Security Council passes a resolution condemning US actions in Venezuela
7%
Will the Venezuelan government officially announce early presidential elections before 1 June 2026?
7%
Either the US or Venezuela declares war on the other
3%
María Corina Machado becomes interim president of Venezuela by 31 March 2026

Please add more answers!

In this market, "by 31 March 2026" is inclusive — if it happens on 31 March, it resolves YES.

Markets with specific deadlines will be resolved according to their deadlines in US Eastern Time.

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@hrothgar are you up for some cross promotion?

Why don't you post a link to this market on my World Conflict Prop Bet market?

@DaniellqdC6 What is the resolution criteria for your answer, "Despite all unlawful actions by the US, venezuelan economy prospers" ?

bought Ṁ20 YES

When are questions without deadlines assessed?

@MachiNi It's a good question. I guess there could either be a specific deadline (EOY or something), or market resolution can be extended until the conflict is "over" one way or another. Opinions?

@hrothgar I was asking in case you had planned on resolving by market close at the latest. I don’t think Maduro will have been convicted by then, but if you’ll extend the market past that date then I might buy yes.

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