Which of the following things will happen in the 2026 USA/Israel vs. Iran conflict by the end of 2026?

MANIFOLD

Ṁ450Ṁ2.5k

Dec 31

31%

At least 10,000 Iranian civilians are killed

24%

At least 1,000 civilian deaths in the Arab Gulf countries

18%

The Iranian regime will collapse

17%

THere is a major domestic terrorist attack in Europe by Iranian-backed terrorists

17%

There is a major domestic terrorist attack in the U.S. by Iranian-aligned terrorists

10%

Benjamin Netanyahu is deposed

10%

Donald Trump is deposed

At least 1,000 Israeli civilians are killed

World War III starts

At least 100 American civilians are killed

A nuclear weapon is used offensively

Resolved

YES

Israel and Iran go to war

Resolved

YES

The U.S, and Iran go to war

Resolved

YES

The strait of Hormuz is closed

Resolved

YES

Crude oil prices top $100

Resolved

YES

Ayatollah Khamenei is deposed

Resolved

YES

At least 10 American troops are killed

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bought Ṁ193 YES

@GuyCohen https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/prices.php
All crude oil prices have gone above $100 per barrel. I assume you are not using gallons, as then the option would not be trading at 83%.

Last I saw on this it was very much a war of Iran chewing through its giant stockpile of missiles, rapid firing them at Israeli cities for weeks, who were in turn shooting them down.