MANIFOLD
Which of the following things will happen in the 2026 USA/Israel vs. Iran conflict by the end of 2026?
29
Ṁ450Ṁ1.9k
Dec 31
75%
At least 10 American troops are killed
50%
Crude oil prices top $100
46%
At least 10,000 Iranian civilians are killed
36%
The conflict wraps up by the end of March.
34%
THere is a major domestic terrorist attack in Europe by Iranian-backed terrorists
32%
The Iranian regime will collapse
27%
At least 1,000 Israeli civilians are killed
24%
At least 1,000 civilian deaths in the Arab Gulf countries
22%
There is a major domestic terrorist attack in the U.S. by Iranian-aligned terrorists
11%
Donald Trump is deposed
10%
Benjamin Netanyahu is deposed
7%
World War III starts
6%
At least 100 American civilians are killed
3%
A nuclear weapon is used offensively
Resolved
YES
Israel and Iran go to war
Resolved
YES
The U.S, and Iran go to war
Resolved
YES
The strait of Hormuz is closed
Resolved
YES
Ayatollah Khamenei is deposed

Market context
Fun
Culture
Personal
Grab Bag
CoolFold
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

Last I saw on this it was very much a war of Iran chewing through its giant stockpile of missiles, rapid firing them at Israeli cities for weeks, who were in turn shooting them down.

People are also trading

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy