World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027

4.9kṀ3730

2027

90%

Xi Jinping remains General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party

83%

Donald Trump remains President of USA

79%

Vladimir Putin remains President of Russia

76%

A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Israel

72%

Iran and Israel both sign (or publicly accept) a written cease-fire or peace agreement, and no lethal exchange of fire between their regular forces occurs for the following 30 consecutive days

63%

Sudanese Civil War ends

62%

Government official from Mexico attends the 2025 BRICS Summit

61%

An armed non-state group captures and holds the capital city of a UN-recognised state for ≥72 hours

59%

A cyber-attack officially attributed to a foreign state actor causes ≥US $1 billion in insured losses to a single country

59%

Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations

58%

Autonomous lethal drones (no human on the kill-decision loop) are acknowledged by any state to have been used in combat

57%

Min Aung Hlaing ceases to serve as either (a) Chairman of the State Administration Council or (b) Commander-in-Chief of the Myanmar Armed Forces

52%

Japan launches a domestically-built intermediate-range ballistic missile (>3 000 km advertised range) test

50%

A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Iran

50%

China declares an air- or maritime-exclusion zone covering any part of Taiwan’s territorial sea or airspace

50%

An armed clash between India and Pakistan results in ≥100 military fatalities in a 7-day period

50%

At least three sovereign states outside NATO, EU, ANZUS, or the Quad sign a formal mutual-defence treaty deposited with the UN Treaty Series

50%

A peace treaty ending the Ethiopia–Tigray conflict is signed and remains unbroken for 90 days

50%

Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains President of Ukraine

48%

Ukraine - Russia War ends with a peace treaty

I will not bet on this market.

Please feel free to add your own prop bets to the market. Questions may be broad (Nuclear Weapon used in aggression) or specific (Trump's June 22, 2025 Cease-fire declaration is not violated for at least 7 days), but should have clear resolution criteria.

This is a market for prop bets related to any and all military/political conflicts worldwide from 2025 through the end of 2027.

I will do my best to quickly resolve questions correctly in a timely fashion. I tend to pay attention to international news.

All questions, unless specifying a date, must be assumed to have "by midnight UTC ±0 on 31 Dec 2027" as part of their resolution criteria.

I will default to the question creator's resolution criteria when necessary.

To assist in correct and timely resolutions, I encourage traders to post news articles/sources supporting a resolution.

I will edit/remove AI updates that are incorrect and put them under a header for the specific question they pertain to. If an AI update is placed under a question header, it is safe to assume it correctly reflects question resolution

Jordan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Update 2025-06-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This answer will resolve to YES only if Jordan becomes a signatory of the specific treaty known as the 'Abraham Accords'. Jordan is not currently a signatory.

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164 Trades