Will there be a major nuclear disaster by 2030? | Manifold

Will there be a major nuclear disaster by 2030?

Nuclear•Nuclear Risk

14

55

Ṁ460

Ṁ330

2030

11%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves YES if:

A nuclear disaster happened, directly killing over 100 people by 2030.

Resolves NO if:

No nuclear disaster happen by 2030.

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@Lachness900 Is this intended to close on December 30th of this year?

Are you including weapons used in wars? Or only things like nuclear power plant accidents?

@EvanDaniel Anything that directly harnesses the energy within an atom

3 questions "will russia nuke ukraine" are traded at 7%, 8% and 9%.

This more general question, but with the amount of deaths criteria, is at 6%.

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Will there be an accidental nuclear detonation in 2024?

Will any terrorist group detonate a nuclear weapon before 2035?

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