Will any terrorist group detonate a nuclear weapon before 2035? | Manifold

Will any terrorist group detonate a nuclear weapon before 2035?

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9

Ṁ277

2035

10%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Must be an actual nuclear detonation, not just a dirty bomb. It's ok if the terrorists are suspected to be backed by a government.

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Hold on, trying to think of a reason the Saudis would nuke one of their primary investments

Whose definition? https://www.state.gov/foreign-terrorist-organizations/ ?

Foreign Terrorist Organizations - United States Department of State

Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs) are foreign organizations that are designated by the Secretary of State in accordance with section 219 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA), as amended. FTO designations play a critical role in our fight against terrorism and are an effective means of curtailing support for terrorist activities and pressuring groups to […]

@jfjurchen If it's not a government, scientific experiment, or civil excavation project, it's probably a terrorist.

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