>The republic’s supreme leader has plotted an exit route out of Tehran should his forces fail to quell dissent, an intelligence report reveals

https://www.thetimes.com/article/10cc88dc-044f-4f74-8ca3-b9f22864b7e4

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if Ayatollah Ali Khamenei physically leaves Iran before February 5, 2026. This includes fleeing Tehran with a retinue of family members and aides. Resolution will be determined by credible reporting from major international news outlets confirming his departure from Iranian territory. The market resolves NO if he remains in Iran through February 5, 2026.

Background

According to intelligence documents cited by The Times, Khamenei has prepared a secret "Plan B" to flee Iran for Moscow should his regime crumble under the weight of nationwide protests. Since December 28, 2025, Iran has been engulfed in nationwide protests triggered by a catastrophic economic crisis and the historic collapse of the national currency, with the Rial plunging to 1.45 million per USD, and the unrest has spread across more than 32 cities. Intelligence assessments describe Khamenei as "weaker, both mentally and physically" since the 12-day war with Israel last year, and he has been virtually invisible during the recent protests.

Considerations

Khamenei's stated trigger for fleeing is if the army and police forces ordered to suppress unrest begin deserting or defecting. While no one can say with certainty whether the current protests will spiral into a revolution, analysts warn that Iran may be entering the early stages of regime collapse through a slow erosion of state capacity rather than a single dramatic event. The timeframe of one month is notably short for such a dramatic political shift, though the intelligence report suggests contingency planning is already underway.

• Update 2026-01-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Khamenei leaves Iran involuntarily (e.g., in custody/handcuffs), this will still count as fleeing for resolution purposes.

• Update 2026-01-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Location of departure does not matter - the market resolves YES if Khamenei flees/is removed from Iran to any country, not just Russia. The key factor is fleeing/removal from power, regardless of destination.