Resolution criteria
This market resolves YES if the Islamic Republic of Iran survives as a functioning state with continuity of its theocratic system following the forcible removal of Khamenei from power. It resolves NO if the regime collapses, is replaced by a fundamentally different system of government, or ceases to exist as a state entity.
"Forcible removal" includes assassination, coup, violent overthrow, or any non-constitutional removal of Khamenei from his position as Supreme Leader. The market resolves based on the state of Iran's government within 12 months following such removal.
Resolution will be determined by monitoring:
Official statements from international governments and major news organizations (Reuters, AP, BBC, etc.)
The continued existence and function of Iran's state institutions
Whether a successor is installed through the Assembly of Experts or other constitutional mechanisms
The nature of any replacement government
Background
The Supreme Leader is Iran's head of state and highest political and religious authority, with the armed forces, judiciary, state radio and television, and other key government organizations subject to the supreme leader. Iran has only experienced one previous succession of supreme leaders—in 1989, when Khamenei was chosen to succeed Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the 1979 Islamic revolution.
The Supreme Leader is selected by the Assembly of Experts and serves a life tenure. If the incumbent Supreme Leader dies in office or is dismissed, the Assembly of Experts should immediately hold a session to select a successor. Current potential candidates to succeed Khamenei include his son Mojtaba Khamenei, his close aides Sadiq Larijani and Mohsen Araki, as well as Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of the Islamic Republic's founder.
Considerations
Expert opinion on regime survival is divided. Some analysts argue the successor will have to be a cleric, as "if you didn't have a cleric succeeding Khamenei, you would no longer have an Islamic revolution. You no longer have an Islamic republic." However, other experts suggest the next leader may not be a religious figure, noting that Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps—a dominant military force—may see Khamenei's departure as an opportunity for change, with one analyst stating "it is quite possible that Ayatollah Khamenei is the last supreme leader of Iran."
Update 2026-01-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Khamenei is still in power at close date (2028-01-01), this market will resolve N/A.
Update 2026-01-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Khamenei dies naturally in office (not forcibly removed), this market will resolve N/A.
1,000People are also trading
@YourFriend The first half of your comment is redundant; the second half is unkind. Please strive to be excellent to your fellow users, and to make Manifold a better place where we can all have fun and make interesting forecasts. If you can't be kind to someone, or just don't like their markets, I'd suggest blocking them or just avoiding their markets. There are plenty of other Khamenei markets to trade on, or you can make one of your own.
@EvanDaniel how do you suppose he will resign voluntarily. Even if he does resign it has to be under pressure of protests or threat of military action by foreign states. That wouldn't make it voluntary
Volunteery removal shortened with the flee to Russia in this question:
https://manifold.markets/Areal/will-irans-supreme-leader-ali-khame