Resolution criteria

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was assassinated on February 28, 2026, triggering Iran's succession process. This market resolves YES if the Assembly of Experts, an 88-member clerical body, formally appoints a new Supreme Leader by April 1st, 2026. Resolution will be confirmed via official announcements from Iranian state media or the Assembly of Experts. The market resolves NO if no appointment is made by the deadline.

Background

Following Khamenei's assassination, Iran has been in an unprecedented succession crisis due to the sudden death of over 40 upper echelon Iranian officials. The constitution does not set a strict deadline for the Assembly of Experts to appoint a new leader, but it states that the Assembly must act "in the shortest possible time." A provisional three-member leadership council assumes the supreme leader's duties until a replacement is formally appointed, comprising President Masoud Pezeshkian, Judiciary Chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei and Ayatollah Alireza Arafi.

Considerations

The formal succession process may be accompanied by intense elite bargaining and broader geopolitical uncertainty, with analysts noting that while some candidates may appear as frontrunners, the Assembly could opt for another member or someone from outside it, with "a great deal of horse-trading" likely and "whoever emerges might be a compromise." Iran's constitution calls for an assembly of experts to choose the next supreme leader, but that may not be possible in wartime, adding uncertainty to whether the process can be completed within the timeframe.

This description was generated by AI.