If Russia successfully invades Ukraine, will China invade Taiwan by the end of the year?

World China Wars Ukraine-Russia war

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69

Ṁ6.5k

resolved Jan 6

Resolved

NO

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves YES 1. if Russia invades Ukraine, 2. that invasion results in the de facto annexation of substantial new territory before Jan 1, 2023 (e.g. the annexation of Donetsk would be sufficient; Russia must officially claim and occupy the new territory; UN recognition not required), and 3. China invades Taiwan before Jan 1, 2023. An "invasion" must include an overt military presence including but not limited to deployed infantry, aerial drone bombings, etc. Resolves N/A if Russia does not invade Ukraine, or if the invasion fails to create new substantial territorial gains which last for at least the remainder of the year.

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Does the current status count as Russia gained territory?

@hamnox apart from the time lasting requirement

predicted YES

@hamnox I assume so. They gained more territory in 2022 than in 2014.

A 20% chance of China invading Taiwan this year is ridiculous.

Buying because it's cheap and Ukraine attack posing as distraction for Taiwan rationally explains Putin's actions.

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Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?

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If China does not invade Taiwan by 2024-12-31, will it invade Taiwan by 2030-12-31?

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Will China begin an invasion of Taiwan by 2028?

Conditional on China Not Supplying Arm to Russia in 2023, will China invade Taiwan before the end of 2028?

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Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of July?

Will China invade Taiwan by the end of 2024?

Will China invade Taiwan before the end of Ukraine-Russian war?

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If China does not invade Taiwan by 2024-12-31, will it invade Taiwan by 2030-12-31?

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