If Russia successfully invades Ukraine, will China invade Taiwan by the end of the year?
69
327
142
resolved Jan 6
Resolved
NO
Resolves YES 1. if Russia invades Ukraine, 2. that invasion results in the de facto annexation of substantial new territory before Jan 1, 2023 (e.g. the annexation of Donetsk would be sufficient; Russia must officially claim and occupy the new territory; UN recognition not required), and 3. China invades Taiwan before Jan 1, 2023. An "invasion" must include an overt military presence including but not limited to deployed infantry, aerial drone bombings, etc. Resolves N/A if Russia does not invade Ukraine, or if the invasion fails to create new substantial territorial gains which last for at least the remainder of the year.
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Does the current status count as Russia gained territory?

@hamnox apart from the time lasting requirement

predicted YES

@hamnox I assume so. They gained more territory in 2022 than in 2014.

bought Ṁ480 of NO
A 20% chance of China invading Taiwan this year is ridiculous.
bought Ṁ15 of YES
Buying because it's cheap and Ukraine attack posing as distraction for Taiwan rationally explains Putin's actions.

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