If Russia successfully invades Ukraine, will China invade Taiwan by the end of the year?

Question

Resolves YES 1. if Russia invades Ukraine, 2. that invasion results in the de facto annexation of substantial new territory before Jan 1, 2023 (e.g. the annexation of Donetsk would be sufficient; Russia must officially claim and occupy the new territory; UN recognition not required), and 3. China invades Taiwan before Jan 1, 2023. An "invasion" must include an overt military presence including but not limited to deployed infantry, aerial drone bombings, etc.

Resolves N/A if Russia does not invade Ukraine, or if the invasion fails to create new substantial territorial gains which last for at least the remainder of the year.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Jan 6, 2023 by Manifold Markets prediction market.