I've put up an exit order at Trump 95%, please bet against it!

@mods Can we N/A this market if it's broken?

We should imo just rename it to make it clear it's a conditional market, like with this market:

Yeah, I think making it conditional is better.

Ok I changed the title. I am fine with unlisting it now, like that bigger market

Making it conditional is pretty unfair to (for example) people who bet Trump NO months ago - they will not get a payout if Harris wins, but will still lose their bets if Trump wins. Maybe just N/A is better. (The other examples also suffer the same problem but to a much lesser extent, because they have Harris as an option so are more likely to include the actual winner.)

The main market where this problem occurs is the one with 3k traders and doesn’t include harris so it seems in a pretty similar situation to this one. I think there’s a case for both N/A and the current setup, we had a discussion about it on the discord the other day

https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/1158528733444055071/1265410561806696533

Basically yeah if someone assumed this was a normal market, didnt realize it didnt contain all possibilities, and bet trump down, they got screwed for not being aware that it was a conditional market. But also realisticslly they would have made modtly the same bets had they known it was conditional, I think? I’m not sure

Ah yeah, I misremembered who was and wasn't an option on that one. :(

I feel like n/a is better but idk

IMO people are responsible for their bets in bad markets. Traders in general are responsible for asking for clarifications on edge cases early, ideally before they bet, and before those edge cases materialize. Edge case risk is a risk you take when placing a bet.

The world is complicated and doesn't always fit neatly into pre-defined boxes, especially when those boxes were not defined with care.

This market is linked MC without the possibility of adding new options. Therefore, not all options that could resolve YES are present. This market might resolve N/A, if none of the existing options resolve YES. As with the other markets below, the market's probabilities may not reflect the actual probabilities of each answer being elected president and we recommend that you avoid these markets. A similar market without this problem is /jack/who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964

Other broken markets:
/getby/2024-us-presidential-election-winne
/berr/who-will-win-the-2024-presidential-0c91a309dca5

What will happen to this market if e.g. Kamala Harris wins? Are all dems grouped under Biden?