Which predictions on Manifold are the most important for society (at scale) to be calibrated on?
19
1.5kṀ4333resolved Jan 1
Resolved
YESThis prediction
This question aims to identify which predictions users believe would produce the greatest benefit to society if a large portion of society were to deeply consider them and understand the full context to make an accurate prediction.
I'm basically using this as a recommender system powered by the community.
Please add the predictions that you believe are most valuable (to society) for people to carefully evaluate.
I will resolve the top 25 to yes and all others as no on January 1st 2025.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ162 | |
| 2 | Ṁ132 | |
| 3 | Ṁ94 | |
| 4 | Ṁ28 | |
| 5 | Ṁ26 |
People are also trading
Related questions
Which will be voted the most important prediction ever listed on Manifold in 2030?
Will Manifold be more accurate than the Veritasium crowd-sourced estimate?
63% chance
Will Manifold provide native functionality for prediction competitions?
68% chance
Is Manifold better-calibrated than financial markets on questions about future asset prices?
6% chance
How many distinct schemes are there for predicting a number on Manifold?
Will Manifold bring back calibration before LLMs are smart enough to provide a better calibration graph?
38% chance
Will Manifold still be functioning by 2030?
82% chance
Will Manifold's calibration be better at the end of 2027?