Which predictions on Manifold are the most important for society (at scale) to be calibrated on?
Basic
18
3.9k
2025

This question aims to identify which predictions users believe would produce the greatest benefit to society if a large portion of society were to deeply consider them and understand the full context to make an accurate prediction.

I'm basically using this as a recommender system powered by the community.

Please add the predictions that you believe are most valuable (to society) for people to carefully evaluate.

I will resolve the top 25 to yes and all others as no on January 1st 2025.

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bought Ṁ10 This prediction YES

clearly this is important for society

this is just whalebait

And worse, year-long whalebait

I recognize the concerns with whalebait. The motivation behind the question is genuine. The aim is to identify which 25 predictions Manifold users believe would bring the most value to society if they were to be deeply considered at scale.

Does anyone have any recommendations on how to query this information without being subject to the influence of whales?

I wish I could set a wager limit per user.

Polls don't seem to cut it.

There needs to be a way for individual users to factor in their confidence.

bought Ṁ250 This prediction NO

Top 25, by probability, at market close? @Krantz

bought Ṁ20 https://manifold.mar... YES

@Krantz Could you clarify the resolution criteria?

bought Ṁ50 https://manifold.mar... NO

Sounds like the billboard market to me. Unranked.

Yes. The 25 entries with the highest likelihood will resolve yes on Jan 1st.