Will Manifold bring back calibration before LLMs are smart enough to provide a better calibration graph?
5
100Ṁ233
Dec 31
38%
chance

Resolution Criteria:

  1. Calibration refers to the previous feature where Manifold users could assess prediction accuracy.

  2. Reintroduction: The feature must be officially launched and accessible to users.

  3. LLM Capability: "Better custom graphs" means any LLM can generate more accurate graphs than its now-defunct predecessor.

  4. Timing: The resolution hinges on whether the reintroduction of calibration comes before LLMs widely demonstrate superior graph-generation capabilities.

  5. Verification: Manifold's official announcements or feature updates will confirm calibration reintroduction. LLM graph capability will be assessed based on public demonstrations, articles, or peer-reviewed benchmarks

  6. Duration: The market will be extended in perpetuity until either happens.

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bought Ṁ50 YES

do you mean this? https://manifold.markets/calibration

if so, then it currently exists. Im probably just confused though

@remedyrain I believe it's personal calibration, per user, miss that feature.

sold Ṁ21 YES

@ProjectVictory Ah thanks! that's a really cool feature. Do you know why they removed it?

@remedyrain It was buggy and required work to fix and some admins believed it was likely to discourage newer users.

https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/will-calibration-come-back-to-manif

Here's a market about it from last year, there's a link to a user made recreation there.

does this resolve when neither of these things happen by close? how?

Market will be extended in perpetuity until either happens.

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