Will Manifold bring back calibration before LLMs are smart enough to provide a better calibration graph?
5
100Ṁ233
Dec 31
38%
chance

Resolution Criteria:

  1. Calibration refers to the previous feature where Manifold users could assess prediction accuracy.

  2. Reintroduction: The feature must be officially launched and accessible to users.

  3. LLM Capability: "Better custom graphs" means any LLM can generate more accurate graphs than its now-defunct predecessor.

  4. Timing: The resolution hinges on whether the reintroduction of calibration comes before LLMs widely demonstrate superior graph-generation capabilities.

  5. Verification: Manifold's official announcements or feature updates will confirm calibration reintroduction. LLM graph capability will be assessed based on public demonstrations, articles, or peer-reviewed benchmarks

  6. Duration: The market will be extended in perpetuity until either happens.

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