This resolves YES if Manifold's estimate from this market is more accurate than the crowd-sourced estimate from Veritasium.

https://manifold.markets/Quroe/how-many-jelly-beans-are-in-this-ja-OUnuy9zORR

Currently, the value there is 1750, which seems like a good average over the last few days as well.

SO,

• If Veritasium gives the "crowd-sourced" estimate AND the actual value of jellybeans AND Manifold's estimate of 1750 is closer, this resolves YES.

• If Veritasium gives the "crowd-sourced" estimate AND the actual value of jellybeans AND Manifold's estimate of 1750 is NOT closer, this resolves NO.

• If they are equidistant, rounded to the nearest integer, this resolves to 50%.

• If Veritasium does NOT release the necessary information, then this resolves to N/A.

• Update 2025-05-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The Manifold estimate to be used for determining resolution is 1750. This is a fixed value. It will not be updated if the estimate in the separate Manifold market on jelly bean counting (referred to in the market description) changes.

• Update 2025-05-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Veritasium presents multiple 'crowd-sourced' estimates:

  • The creator will use the estimate that Veritasium most prominently highlights.

  • If Veritasium presents several estimates on equal footing (without a single highlighted one), the creator will use the median of those estimates.