Will the Apple Vision Pro be worn in public in 2027?
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2028
70%
chance

In a arbitrary weekday in 2027, me or a trusted person comissioned by myself, will talk a walk from the Central Park (Columbus Circus) through Broadway and the Times Square to the 34st Herald Square subway station. I'll be paying attention to the people in the streets. It is a 26min walking in the busyest city in the world.

If I see at least two people wearing Apple-made AR/VR headsets (covering their eyes), I'll resolve this market to YES. If I don't see, I'll resolve to NO. I'll try to document, but it can be hard.

If walking by Manhatthan in 2024, 2025, or 2026 and in the same day I see two people in the streets wearing Apple headsets in the streets, I'll resolve to YES.

DISCLAIMER: I don't live in the US, but I ocasionally go to NYC. I reserve the right to solve this market at any day in 2027 when I do this walk. I intend to give guidance on when I plan to resolve, but it isn't guaranteed.

I won't bet.

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I am traveling to India for 2 months, will I see a single Apple Vision Pro in the entire country during those 2 months?

Not me, not in public, not clear whether in NYC, but important update.

I suspect NYC is not "the busiest city in the world" by basically any metric, including total population (11th place) or population density (19th place)

This is an awesome market, love the idea for resolution criteria

The title is 'Will the Apple Vision Pro be worn in public in 2027?', but in the description you are not stating that the model should be exactly "Apple Vision Pro ", you are saying: 'If I see at least two people wearing Apple-made AR/VR headsets (covering their eyes)'

Can you please clarify how you will resolve this market in the situations:

1. You see 2 (or more) people wearing Apple made AR/VR headsets, but it is obvious that they are not "Apple Vision Pro", but some other model made by Apple (something like "Apple Vision" or "Apple Vision SE"). So the model is definitely not "Apple Vision Pro", but definitely made by Apple.


2. You see 2 (or more) people wearing Apple made AR/VR headsets, but you can't say exactly what Apple AR/VR headset they are wearing. It can be "Apple Vision Pro", or it can be any other Apple made headset (this is possible in the situaion when different Apple headsets looks similar). So the device is definitely made by Apple, but you can't tell the model for sure.

3. You see 2 (or more) people wearing made AR/VR headsets that looks very similar to what Apple is selling, but you can't say for sure that this is Apple device or some clone.

predicts YES

The issue where the market question is not 1:1 with its criteria extends beyond this market. I believe the criteria should be clear and self-evident within the question itself. If someone bet on this market without opening it, such as in the case where the market appears in a scroll list elsewhere on the platform, then they would be trading on criteria that doesn't quite match the creator's.

I had interpreted this question until now as perhaps more specifically as "will anyone wear this particular headset in public in 2027?" instead of "will it be relatively common to see Apple AR/VR worn in public in 2027?", let alone "will 2 or more people be wearing Apple AR/VR in NYC during a specific walk by a specific person in 2027?". Sure, that's not a terrible way to sample this, but it's not really what I expected from the market question.

Ok guys, it seems that Huawei owns the trademark Vision Pro in China, so perhaps it will change name. It doesn't for this market.

predicts NO

Does this include physically transparent Apple Glasses or just Apple Vision style digitally transparent headsets?

@ahalekelly "If I see at least two people wearing Apple-made AR/VR headsets (covering their eyes), I'll resolve this market to YES"

It has to be Apple-made and has to be AR or VR. I understand the anxiety, but the physically transparent Apple AR glasses is at least 10 years away. If they could launch it by 2027, they'd have waited a couple of years instead of all the workarounds they deployed.

Before creating this market, I'd put a single digit probability. The current level is giving me expectations we're about to enter a dystopia

predicts YES

@MP Two users on an average day in Manhattan is a pretty low bar, and not too close to dystopian-level adoption.

bought Ṁ20 of YES

Betting YES strictly based on expecting an early resolution in 2024 or 2025. If this market were strictly about the 2027 timeframe, I'd probably go NO.

@NLeseul I don't think I understood. This market can only resolve early to YES.

@MP They are saying they expect you to see people wearing then soon after release (2024/2025), but for the product to fizzle by 2027.

bought Ṁ85 of NO

@MP Yes, they are saying they think people will do it because it is new, but then it will go out of fashion / get pushed out by public opinion, like Google Glass.

predicts YES

Would be good to have one of these for 24 and 25 too

bought Ṁ20 of NO

My gut says no way but that’s also what I said about AirPods and the Apple Watch

@Mvem the other day I was complaining that no one bought the airpod max only to find some people in the 6th wearing it. Crazy

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