Will the Apple Vision Pro be worn in public in 2027?

Question

[tweet]In a arbitrary weekday in 2027, me or a trusted person comissioned by myself, will talk a walk from the Central Park (Columbus Circus) through Broadway and the Times Square to the 34st Herald Square subway station. I'll be paying attention to the people in the streets. It is a 26min walking in the busyest city in the world.

If I see at least two people wearing Apple-made AR/VR headsets (covering their eyes), I'll resolve this market to YES. If I don't see, I'll resolve to NO. I'll try to document, but it can be hard.

If walking by Manhatthan in 2024, 2025, or 2026 and in the same day I see two people in the streets wearing Apple headsets in the streets, I'll resolve to YES.

DISCLAIMER: I don't live in the US, but I ocasionally go to NYC. I reserve the right to solve this market at any day in 2027 when I do this walk. I intend to give guidance on when I plan to resolve, but it isn't guaranteed.

I won't bet.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 20% chance (81 traders, as of Jun 15, 2026).