Will SLS be cancelled before 2026?

1.1kṀ3909

Dec 31

11%

chance

ALL

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Will NASA's SLS be cancelled before 2026?

11% chance

Before when will SLS be cancelled?

Will SLS survive 2025? (Everyday Astronaut 2025 Predictions)

91% chance

Will Lunar Gateway be cancelled before 2026?

15% chance

Will the Department of Government Efficiency recommend cancelling SLS before 2029?

76% chance

How many times will SLS launch before 2035

Will NASA’s Artemis 2 mission be launched successfully before January 1st, 2026?

3% chance

Will Starship go to the Moon before 2026?

1% chance

Will the ISS still be in operation at the start of 2026?

98% chance

Will there be a crewed mission to Lunar orbit before 2026?

Sort by:

I've created a similar market, but with what I hope are clear definitions of what it means for SLS to be cancelled:

https://manifold.markets/DanHomerick/will-nasas-sls-be-cancelled-in-2025

(Note that prior to anyone betting, I edited the title to include the tail end of 2024.)

How will you count it if an announcement is made that SLS will be cancelled after the next flight? Or after the next two flights? What if they change their mind and then cancel earlier after all?

@Mqrius I think the most fits-the-title decision would be that a plan to cancel/retire SLS after a 2025 flight counts but that if its after a flight in 2026 or beyond it doesn't.