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Before when will SLS be cancelled?

Will the Department of Government Efficiency recommend cancelling SLS before 2029?

76% chance

Will there be a crewed mission to Lunar orbit before 2026?

1% chance

How many times will SLS launch before 2035

Will SLS Block 2 ever launch?

5% chance

Will the Department of Government Efficiency recommend cancelling Blue Origin's Human Landing System before 2029?

5% chance

Will Buzz Aldrin survive 2026?

59% chance

Will SLS be used for Artemis 3 as planned?

75% chance

Will NASA land a person on the Moon before 2026?

1% chance

Will Elon Musk go to space by the end of 2026?

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I've created a similar market, but with what I hope are clear definitions of what it means for SLS to be cancelled:

https://manifold.markets/DanHomerick/will-nasas-sls-be-cancelled-in-2025

(Note that prior to anyone betting, I edited the title to include the tail end of 2024.)

How will you count it if an announcement is made that SLS will be cancelled after the next flight? Or after the next two flights? What if they change their mind and then cancel earlier after all?

@Mqrius I think the most fits-the-title decision would be that a plan to cancel/retire SLS after a 2025 flight counts but that if its after a flight in 2026 or beyond it doesn't.