I've created a similar market, but with what I hope are clear definitions of what it means for SLS to be cancelled:

https://manifold.markets/DanHomerick/will-nasas-sls-be-cancelled-in-2025

(Note that prior to anyone betting, I edited the title to include the tail end of 2024.)

How will you count it if an announcement is made that SLS will be cancelled after the next flight? Or after the next two flights? What if they change their mind and then cancel earlier after all?

@Mqrius I think the most fits-the-title decision would be that a plan to cancel/retire SLS after a 2025 flight counts but that if its after a flight in 2026 or beyond it doesn't.

Multiple answers market:

https://x.com/SciGuySpace/status/1856522880143745133