Resolution criteria

SLS first launched on 16 November 2022 for the uncrewed Artemis I mission. This market resolves YES if any SLS rocket successfully launches at any point during the calendar year 2027. A successful launch is defined as the rocket clearing the launch pad and reaching space. The market resolves NO if no SLS launch occurs in 2027.

Resolution will be verified via official NASA announcements and credible space news sources including NASA.gov, NASASpaceflight.com, and SpaceNews.

Background

Artemis II is scheduled to launch no earlier than April 1, 2026. Artemis III is expected to launch no earlier than mid-2027 as the first crewed landing on the Moon since Apollo 17. NASA announced it is adding an additional mission in 2027, and the Artemis III mission, now in 2027, will be designed to test out systems and operational capabilities in low Earth orbit to prepare for an Artemis IV landing in 2028.

Considerations

The uncrewed first flight of SLS slipped more than twenty-six times and almost six years before launching in 2022. The schedule was delayed by more than two months due to investigations into issues with Orion's life support system and unexpected damage to Orion's heat shield observed after the Artemis I reentry. Given this history of delays and the complexity of the SLS program, traders should account for the possibility that 2027 missions could slip into 2028 or beyond.

This description was generated by AI.