Resolution criteria

Artemis IV is expected to launch no earlier than September 2028, and NASA would like to launch Artemis V also in 2028. The market resolves based on the actual number of SLS launches that occur during the calendar year 2028. A launch counts if the SLS rocket lifts off from the launch pad, regardless of mission success or failure. Resolution will be determined by official NASA announcements and launch records available at NASA's Artemis blog and RocketLaunch.Live SLS schedule.

Background

SLS first launched on 16 November 2022 for the uncrewed Artemis I mission. NASA is required by Congress to use SLS Block 1 for Artemis I, II, and III, while starting in 2028, Block 1B is intended to debut the Exploration Upper Stage and launch Artemis IV–VII. Artemis IV will now become the first Artemis attempt to land humans on the moon with a goal of launching in 2028, and NASA would like to launch Artemis V also in 2028. However, the NASA Inspector General estimated that the launch platform could end up costing the agency $2.5 billion and may not be ready to support a launch until 2029, making the current launch schedule unrealistic.

Considerations

The SLS project has seen mismanagement, budget overruns, and delays, with the first launch required by Congress to take place by 2016 occurring nearly six years later. NASA aims to launch the booster roughly every 10 months, rather than once every three years, but this represents a significant acceleration from historical performance. The feasibility of two SLS launches in 2028 depends on completion of Mobile Launcher 2 and resolution of ongoing technical issues.

This description was generated by AI.