https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/will-asteroid-2024-yr24-strike-earth-in-2032/

Background Asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered in January 2024 and has a 1.2% chance of impacting Earth on December 22, 2032. The asteroid is currently being monitored by the European Space Agency (ESA), NASA, and other space organizations through the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN). The Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG) is responsible for coordinating any potential response to asteroid threats.

NASA has previously demonstrated asteroid deflection capabilities with the successful DART mission in 2022, which altered the orbit of asteroid Dimorphos using kinetic impact technology.

Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if any organization (governmental or private) launches a spacecraft mission with the explicitly stated purpose of altering asteroid 2024 YR4's orbit before December 22, 2032. The mission must actually launch - merely announcing or planning a mission is not sufficient for YES resolution.

The market will resolve NO if:

• No deflection mission is launched by December 22, 2032

• The following text was AI generated and after consideration I believe reduces clarity rather than adding it: [The asteroid is determined to pose no threat to Earth (through refined orbital calculations)

  The asteroid impacts Earth without any attempted deflection mission]

Considerations

• The asteroid will be unobservable for approximately three years, with the next observation window beginning in 2028

• Current impact probability calculations may change significantly as more observational data becomes available

• If the impact probability remains above 1%, SMPAG may recommend a deflection mission, though this is not guaranteed

• The development and launch of a deflection mission would likely take several years of preparation