By 2040, will an organisation be mining asteroids for resources?

Technology•Space

350

Ṁ2.9K

Ṁ530

2040

20%

chance

ALL

Resources includes metals and consumables. The organisation could be mining the resources to sell or to use for their own space operations.

A demonstration mission is not enough, the process must be used for its intended purpose. It does not have to be regular, or frequent, but should be routine.

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There is a YC startup dedicated to making money via mining asteroids. They are aiming to mine asteroids by the end of this decade. While it's not a given that they would succeed, I think it's a sign that asteroid mining could ultimately be feasible.

https://www.ycombinator.com/companies/astroforge

https://techcrunch.com/2022/05/26/astroforge-raises-13m-seed-round-for-asteroid-mining-ambitions/

AstroForge: We Mine Asteroids | Y Combinator

We Mine Asteroids. Founded in 2021 by Jose Acain and Matt Gialich, AstroForge has 10 employees based in Huntington Beach, CA, USA. AstroForge is hiring for 4 roles in engineering and science.

How strict is the plural "asteroids" in the title? Given the difficulty of mining and the potential resources from even a single asteroid, I think it's entirely plausible there will be an organization with regular, frequent and routine robotic expeditions returning resources from a single asteroid.

@whenhaveiever that's a great point. I will say that would definitely count

predicts NO

@JoshuaWilkes How will this market resolve if an organization routinely mines asteroids for resources before 2040, but then discontinues mining before 2040, and no organization is routinely mining astroids for resources at the start of 2040?