https://x.com/SciGuySpace/status/2022101432066093330?s=20

The market resolves to whichever rocket achieves orbital velocity first. Resolution is determined by the first successful orbital insertion, defined as reaching a stable orbit around Earth with apogee and perigee both above 100 km altitude. Neutron's first launch is targeted for 2026 (no earlier than Q1), Terran R is scheduled for the second half of 2026, Rocket 4 is planned for summer 2026, and Nova is under development at Cape Canaveral. Resolution will be based on official announcements from the respective companies and confirmed by credible space industry sources (SpaceNews, NASASpaceflight, Space.com, or official company statements).

Background

Rocket Lab's Neutron aims to reach orbit on its first flight, a challenging objective for new vehicle architectures. Terran R is a 3D-printed medium-lift vehicle expected to deliver 33,500 kg to LEO when expended. Astra's Rocket 4 will use two new 42,000-pound-thrust engines on its first stage and a single Hadley engine on the upper stage, capable of placing about 750 kg to LEO. Stoke Space's Nova is completing facilities at Cape Canaveral.

Considerations

All four rockets are first-time orbital attempts with inherent technical risk. Astra's Rocket 4 development was delayed by failures of its smaller Rocket 3.3 vehicle and financial issues. Schedule slippages are common in new launch vehicle development, so announced timelines may shift. The "None before 2030" option resolves yes if none of these rockets achieve orbit by December 31, 2029.

This description was generated by AI.